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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231510
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Apr 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 05N127W to 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either 
side of a line from 09N115W to 04N133W.  

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front near 32N120W is bridged by a surface 
ridge from 23N116W to 12N94W. Gentle to moderate northwesterly 
winds are observed west of southern Mexico, with 5-8 ft seas in 
long period nw swell. A tightening pressure gradient is already 
supporting a moderate to fresh NW winds north of 27N. Expect 
fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8-12 ft from 29N to 32N 
through Mon night. These conditions will spread southward on 
Tuesday and reach as far south as 26N by Tuesday night. Strong 
to near gale force northwesterly winds expected N of 29N late 
Wed night through Fri night with combined seas of 11 to 16 ft.  

Gulf of California: Variable winds around a weak surface low N 
of 30N. Fresh to strong nocturnal sw winds are expected each 
night across the gulf waters from 29.5N to 31N, with seas 
building to about 5 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh northerly drainage flow 
this morning will increase tonight to near gale force by Monday 
morning, with seas building to 11 ft downstream of the gulf near 
14.5N95W. The pressure gradient will quickly relax Monday with 
winds less than 20 kt and seas less than 8 ft by Monday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds mostly onshore flow expected during the 
day becoming offshore along the coasts at night. Combined seas 
of 3 to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell forecast during the next 
several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front from 30N121W to 23N138W will lose identity tonight 
south of 30N. Expect NW swell to propagate eastward today, then 
subside from the NW Monday through Wednesday. Strong NW winds 
and seas to 12 ft are expected north of 29.5N east of 123W 
tonight through early Wed, with similar conditions north of 28N 
east of 126W Thursday. 

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Apr-2017 15:10:35 UTC