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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210324
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
323 UTC Tue Nov 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 

....SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The latest observations from 
Salina Cruz, on the southern coast of the isthmus of Tehuantepec 
indicated 20 kt northerly winds, hinting of stronger gap winds 
over the adjacent Gulf of Tehuantepec. The winds and seas over 
the Gulf will diminish through early Tue as high pressure north 
of the area weakens. Seas to 8 ft will linger well offshore with 
the assistance of long period southwest swell. These seas will 
subside through late Tue as the swell decays. The window of 
relative diminished winds and seas will be short however, as 
another front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will initiate a 
new round of strong winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Wed, 
reaching gale force Wed night with seas building 12 to 17 ft, and
may persist into Fri.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N105W. Intertropical
convergence zone extends from 06N105W to 12N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 60 nm of the intertropical
convergence zone between 125W and 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features paragraph for Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale 
Warning.

A ridge reaching from 1021 mb high pressure centered near 
31N125W through the Revillagigedo Islands will maintain light to
gentle breezes over the waters within 250 NM off the Baja 
California peninsula to the coast of central Mexico, with 3 to 5 
ft seas over the next several days.

Light to gentle NW winds over the Gulf of California will
increase to 15 to 20 kt by late Tue as high pressure builds over
the Great Basin, then diminishing by Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh NE drainage winds 
are forecast during the overnight hours tonight, then light 
drainage flow expected during the overnight hours through Thu 
night, with fresh to locally strong nocturnal drainage possible 
on Fri and Sat nights.

Light and variable winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are expected 
elsewhere to the N of the monsoon trough which has been 
meandering from 09N to 11N, while moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas, are forecast south of the 
monsoon trough this week.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A sharp deep layer trough northwest of the discussion area along
145W will make slow progress eastward against a large blocking 
ridge currently along 120W that will gradually deamplify as it
drifts slowly eastward over the next several days. This pattern
will support a persistent area of fresh to occasionally strong
southerly winds in the far northwest corner of the discussion
area, north of 28N and west of 135W. A strong and mostly
stationary upper jet will support scattered showers and a few 
thunderstorms over the next couple of day north of 20N and west 
of 135W. 

Farther south, modest trade wind convergence in conjunction with
upper divergence between the upper ridge to the north and an 
upper cyclone farther south near the equator is supporting a 
surface trough with a few showers and thunderstorms from 07N to 
17N between 125W and 130W, and expected to drift westward through
135W over the next couple of days. 

Long period NW swell will propagate E across the discussion 
waters W of 120W from mid to late week, and subside during the 
upcoming weekend.

$$
Christensen

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Nov-2017 03:24:35 UTC