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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N92W TO 1009 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 11N109W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N109W TO 10N120W TO 
08N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 116W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 32N136W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR 18N110W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ REMAINS STRONG PRODUCING 
A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS FROM 
13N TO 28N W OF 117W. EARLIER OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA 
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL 
MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AND DIMINISHING THE AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SLIGHTLY. BY MON NIGHT...EXPECT 
INCREASING SE WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SE 
TO S WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT 
DEVELOPING N OF 27N W OF 137W ON TUE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
IS FORECAST TO REACH 30N140W BY TUE NIGHT.

CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 109W WITH THE MOST 
INTENSE ACTIVITY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A 1009 MB LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 11N109W AND ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 130W.

A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE NW AND N-CENTRAL 
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE 
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE 
SUN INTO MON. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES 
RELATED TO THE TRADES KEEPING SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE TODAY... 
REACHING 24N BY EARLY TUE. THESE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM 
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT WITH THIS 
WIND EVENT BY LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

LOOKING AHEAD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A 
GALE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ON WED. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD 
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS 
EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY 
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY 
WED. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE 
INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM 20 TO 24 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS... 
CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE 
MADE.

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Nov-2014 15:36:36 UTC