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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2205 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build 
behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico early this 
week. This pattern, along with local drainage flow effects, will 
support gap winds to minimal gale force to pulse across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec late Mon evening into early Tue morning. And 
pulse to minimal gale-force winds again late Tue evening into Wed
morning. Expect sustained winds to briefly reach 35 kt during 
this times, with seas building as high as 10 ft downstream across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Tue through Wed.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N90W to 03N107W. The 
ITCZ continues from 03N107W to 04N128W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the trough from 04N to 06N between 83W
and 86W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about a
gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A surface ridge extends from north of the area off the U.S. west
coast, to off Baja California to off Cabo Corrientes. Recent
ASCAT pass depicted moderate to fresh NW winds across the 
central and southern Gulf of California, funneling between this 
ridge and lower pressure over central Mexico. Elsewhere, this 
pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate breezes across the 
offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate combined seas prevail 
everywhere, including most of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, as described in the Special Features section, 
near-gale to gale force gap will start tonight over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, associated with a cold front moving into southern 
Mexico. Winds will pulse to gale force again on Tue night. These
gap winds and associated rough seas will diminish across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Wed. Farther north, expect moderate 
to fresh NW winds from the central Gulf of California to Cabo 
Corrientes to persist through Tue as the high pressure builds 
west of the region and low pressure deepens over central Mexico. 
These winds will diminish through late Tue. Beyond Tue, gentle 
to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft will prevail. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Latest scatterometer data confirmed the presence moderate to 
fresh NE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. This gap wind 
event is due to a combination of local drainage effects and a 
relatively tight gradient related to high pressure north of the 
area. Seas within this winds are 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhere seas 3 to 5
ft seas prevail except, seas to 8 ft persist close to the south 
of the offshore waters around the Galapagos in the southern 
swell.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo
region into Tue morning, then possibly pulsing each night until 
Thu night. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will continue
elsewhere through the forecast period. Farther south, southerly 
swell reaching 8 ft will persist through Tue evening from 
offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1012 mb broad area of low pressure is located near 23N134W. 
This low is associated with a broad, negatively tilted mid to 
upper level trough reaching from northwest of the region, where 
related divergent flow aloft continue to support clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident to the southeast of the low center near 
19N132W in where recent scatterometer data depicted localized 
near- gale force to gale winds out of the south. Broad surface 
ridging is in place north of 20N, supporting mostly gentle 
breezes across the region, except for moderate trade wind flow 
over tropical waters from 08N to 16N. NW swell of 6 to 7 ft 
covers most of the region west of 105W, with seas to 9 ft in the 
area of moderate trade winds, and farther south of the equator 
where a component of SE swell is adding to the mix. Combined seas
of 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S swell are evident east of 105W.

For the forecast, low pressure west of the area along the 
surface trough will move eastward tonight, with winds increasing
to moderate to fresh along 140W and north of 21N. The low may 
linger through the early part of the week before weakening and 
opening to a trough. Shorter period wind waves created by 
moderate to fresh swell from 05N to 15N west of 110W will mix 
with the longer period NW swell propagating across the region to 
maintain 8 to 9 ft combined seas in the area of moderate to fresh
trade winds through mid week. Farther south, the southerly swell
will subside Tue night.

$$
KRV