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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250913
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 UTC Sun Jun 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Dora was centered near 14.7N 
100.9W at 25/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection was noted within 60 nm 
northeast and 90 nm southwest semicircles of Dora. The system is 
forecast to continue on a west- northwest track while 
intensifying, reaching hurricane strength Monday afternoon before
starting a weakening trend as the system moves over cooler 
waters. Heavy rainfall associated to this system will affect 
portions of southwest Mexico, especially along the coastal 
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan
through Monday. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
Headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details on the track and 
intensity of Dora, and the latest High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO Headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on 
marine impacts of Dora.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 12N96W, it then 
resumes at 10N102W to 09N132W. The ITCZ extends from 09N132W to 
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 60 nm north of the monsoon trough between 87W and
90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south
of the monsoon trough between 108W and 112W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 122W and 126W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features for more information on Tropical Storm Dora.

Outside of the influence of Dora, high pressure of 1017 mb 
centered near 28N126W extends a ridge across the offshore 
forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the 
Baja California, gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf of 
California, and light to gentle winds off the coast of southwest
Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off the coast of the Baja 
California Peninsula, 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, and 5-6
ft elsewhere. These conditions will prevail into the early part
of the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across 
most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception
of mainly south winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue 
to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft 
through Monday. Cross equatorial long period southerly swell is
expected to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands Monday night into Tuesday, building seas up to 9 ft late 
on Tuesday, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 28N126W, while  
surface trough extends over the northwest waters. Moderate to 
fresh northerly winds are noted west of the trough. Light and 
variable winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N W of 130W, with gentle
to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas in the 8 to 11 ft
range prevailing over the northwest waters will start to subside
today, and fall below 8 ft Monday night. 

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Jun-2017 09:13:39 UTC