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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300254
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 30 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An ill-defined tropical wave axis is analyzed along 85W north of
07N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are noted within 60 nm
west of the axis. Scattered moderate convection is seen east of
the wave within 30 nm of 07N82W. The pressure gradient near this
wave will remain weak during the next 48 hours as the wave moves
further west through a broad area of low pressure. Surface
signature of the wave is expected to be rather subtle...if
detected...through Tuesday.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to low pressure near
09N94W 1010 mb to 09N100W to 09N107W to 13N113W to low pressure
near 13N120W 1010 mb to 09N127W to 09N135W. The ITCZ axis
extends from 09N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered strong
convection is within 30 nm of the axis between 113W and 114W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection exists within
30 nm of the axis between 116W and 118W.

...DISCUSSION... 

High pressure covers the area to the north of 15N west of 112W
with a ridge axis roughly along 32N133W to 26N127W to near
24N116W. The very tight pressure gradient from the past few days
that was just north of the northeastern portion of the area has
weakened. N swell that has been ushered into the north-central
waters from this gradient are gradually subsiding north of 27N
between 122W and 128W with resultant seas of 8 feet. The swell
energy is expected to dissipate by Monday afternoon, with seas
subsiding to 6 to 7 feet there.

Ascat data from Sunday afternoon depicted generally gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds north of the convergence zone
west of 114W, and light to variable winds east of 114W. Light to
moderate southerly winds were indicated south of the monsoon and
ITCZ zones.                       

A 1010 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 13N120W. Latest
satellite imagery shows a diminishing trend from earlier deep
convection observed in association with the low. The imagery is
presently revealing scattered moderate type convection within 60
nm of the low in the west quadrant. The low is forecast to move
northeast through Monday morning, then to the southeast
thereafter while weakening. Strong northeast winds in the
northwest quadrant of the low with seas of 8 to 10 ft are
forecast to diminish to 15 to 20 kt by late Monday afternoon.
A small area of strong southwest winds to the southeast of 
the low from 11N to 12N between 120W and 121.5W are forecast to
also diminish on Monday. The main marine issue will be
attributed to an extensive swath of southern hemispheric south
to southwest swell that will slowly subside as it sweeps through
the south/central waters into early on Tuesday, and to much of
the southeastern waters by late on Tuesday. A weak cold front
is forecast by the Global models to approach the far northwest 
portion of the area late on Tuesday and stall. No significant
impact is expected from this front on winds and seas in the 
far northwest waters.

$$
Aguirre