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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N137W MOVING NW AT 5 KT. 
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG 
TRADES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER GENERATING 
SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 128W. THE LOW IS LOCATED 
BENEATH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N130W TO BEYOND 
13N140W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GRADUAL AND SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT TREND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N TO 20N88W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N106W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 
TROUGHING AND AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM BETWEEN 104W 
AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N117W TO 13N117W MOVING W AT 10 TO 
15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
23N120W. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 08N101W TO 06N117W TO 05N125W TO 
08N1310W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W 
AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO 
NEAR 19N110W. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N137W AND IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N  W OF 
136W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N AND NE OF 
THE LOW CENTER. THE FRESH WINDS ARE HELPING TO GENERATE SEAS TO 
8 FT ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND 
132W. 

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED INCREASE LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING MUCH OF THE ITCZ REGION ACTIVE BETWEEN 
93W AND 125W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. LATEST FORECAST 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ITCZ BREAKDOWN EVENT ACROSS THE FAR 
WESTERN WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THERE 
IS A LOW CHANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULTING FROM THE 
BREAKDOWN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME A 
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS AFTERWARDS. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS GENERATING RESIDUAL FRESH TO 
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5N AND 
95.5N FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH 
TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

THE EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND 
INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION WITH STRONG GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS...PEAKING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH A MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING HOURS. PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT. 

$$
HUFFMAN

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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Jul-2015 15:26:06 UTC