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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070242
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

LOW PRES 1005 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 12N134W...OR ABOUT 1260 NM ESE 
OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND IS MOVING NW AROUND 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE E AND 240 
NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W...AND ALSO 
FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 138W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-12 FT 
SEAS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 540 NM IN THE N QUADRANT AND 420 NM IN 
THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS LOW 
HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                    

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS 
AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 
05N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM N OF A LINE FROM 08N78W TO 05N82W TO 08N86W...AND 
FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...AND FROM 
03N TO 05N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 106W AND 111W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 123W WITH THESE AREAS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N127W EXTENDS A BROAD 
RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 21N...W OF 116W. MAINLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS ARE N OF 21N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER 
MENTIONED ABOVE.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS 
WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE 
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE ENHANCEMENT.     
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WILL 
PROPAGATE OFF TO THE W-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS SNEAKING N OF THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE N-NE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED 
TO TIGHTEN WED NIGHT AND THIS SETUP COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS OF THU.

$$
LEWITSKY


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 07-Jul-2015 02:42:38 UTC