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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101153 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1155 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN
SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO
STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE S-SW MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W ON WED NIGHT...
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N93W...RESULTING IN SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N88W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N98W TO 06N108W TO 02N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107W-
120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF
97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00N-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 067-12N W OF 130W
THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE
WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 27N-32N W OF 137W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
HUFFMAN

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 10-Feb-2016 11:53:25 UTC