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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG 
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-45 KT WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT WILL 
INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 15-25 FT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO 
BUILD ACROSS S ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD DENSE 
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT. 
THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BACK TO STRONG 
GALE FORCE FORCE OF 30-45 KT BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE 18-26 FT RANGE.  
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA 
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO AROUND 12-
18 FT BY THEN. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N126W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION. DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ 
IS ANALYZED ON THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 01N90W TO S OF 
THE EQUATOR AT 104W...AND TO 01S117W TO 03S128W TO 02S140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N124W TO 24N118W TO 18N113W. 
HIGH PRES COVERS THE N AREA N OF 19N W OF 112W. RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS 
FROM 05N TO 13N W OF 118W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA 
HEIGHTS OF 8-10 FT. EXPECT THE TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH 
TODAY S HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
NEAR BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES 
OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...                                                  
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY 
AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT STARTS. AS STRONG 
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTENDING SW AND 
DOWNWIND TO 93W BY EARLY SAT MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA. 

NE TO E SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND 
EVENTS WILL PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
COVERING ROUGHLY THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W 
AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PULSES OF FEW SHORT-
LIVED BURSTS OF 20 KT WINDS FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF
20-25 KT WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG 
HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH JUST 
INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST ADJACENT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BECOMES 
LESS DISCERNIBLE...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE CULPRIT PRES GRADIENT 
TO SLACKEN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 
FT N OF 27N BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THEN 
8 FT BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

$$
AGUIRRE


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