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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250243
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 100W FROM 02N TO 12W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED 
FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE W AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS 
FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOUND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 87W. A BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS 
ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 08N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N W OF 120W...THE LAST OF A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES IS 
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO. RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD 
BEHIND THIS TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY 
FLOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST...BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADIENT 
FLOW WILL PULSE UPWARD THIS EVENING MAINLY WITHING 200 NM SOUTH 
OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT N OF 20N OFF THE 
BAJA COAST...BUT 5 TO 7 FT BETWEEN 15N AND 20N DUE THE LINGERING 
PRESENCE OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF 
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL REINFORCE WAVE HEIGHTS EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...MAINTAINING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS AND BRINGING POTENTIALLY ROUGH 
SURF TO THE MEXICAN COAST FROM TEHUANTEPEC TO MANZANILLO.

S OF 15N W OF 110W...RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP 
TROPICS IS INTERACTING WITH RIDGING REACHING INTO THE NORTHERN 
CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND 
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE ALREADY 5 TO 
7 FT OVERALL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY 
SWELL LINGERING IN THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL GAP WIND FLOW WILL 
ALLOW A PLUME OF SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR WEST AS 90W TONIGHT OFF 
PAPAGAYO. ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL 
CROSS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TONIGHT...REINFORCING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS 
AND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH SURF TO THE CENTRAL 
AMERICAN COAST MON AND TUE. FARTHER WEST...A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS 
ANALYZED NEAR 08N117W. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOWING THE LOW PRES NOT DEEPENING AS 
IT DRIFTS WEST ALONG THE ITCZ. LOOKING AHEAD...LOW PRES RELATED 
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 100W WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NEAR 10N110W 
AND DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT 
DRIFTS TO THE WNW.

ELSEWHERE...A BROAD LOW 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 
12N133W DRIFTING NW. CONVECTION INCREASED EARLIER...BUT THE 
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING WESTERLY SHEAR AS IT MOVES NW AND CLOSER TO 
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N146W. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE 
LOW WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 HOURS. FRESH TO 
STRONG SE WINDS ARE NOTED IN AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER 
PASS...BETWEEN A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N143W AND 1022 MB 
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N128W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST 
BETWEEN THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N133W...WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
CENTER OF THE LOW...WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE PRIMARILY 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS LIE SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ANOTHER 
LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 08N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WEST OF THE LOW PRES THROUGH 140W ALONG THE ITCZ...BUT 
AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AND NEARBY TOGA-TAO BUOY 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND THIS 
LOW. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS 
AS THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 12N132W SHIFTS N OF THE AREA.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN


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Page last modified: Monday, 25-May-2015 02:44:01 UTC