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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291509
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale conditions are forecast 
to persist in the Tehuantepec region through this morning, with 
seas peaking around 14 to 15 ft in the next few hours. Swell 
generated by this gap wind will spread southwestward, creating 8
to 11 ft seas as far west as 100W and as far south as 09N by 
later this morning. Winds and seas will gradually diminish 
through early Sat. Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, 
especially local fishermen, need to take necessary action to 
avoid these hazardous marine conditions.

Large Northerly Swell Event: A series of troughs/cold fronts 
will drop S of 30N across the northerly waters the next few days 
with reinforcing sets of northerly swell. Seas will build to 12 
ft or greater S of 30N tonight, reaching to 24N between 118W and
137W by Sat evening when peak seas are forecast to build to 
around 16 ft along 30N. These seas will continue to spread SE 
into early next week before subsiding. Wave periods will be 12 to
14 seconds. Very hazardous marine conditions will occur with 
these seas over the open waters, and also at the coast of Baja 
California Norte, likely resulting in dangerous surf conditions. 
Please consult products from your national weather service for 
more details on conditions near the coast.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on
both areas.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from northern Colombia to 05N85W to
04N93W. The ITCZ runs westward from 04N93W to 03N120W to 
00N135W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
01N to 08N between 91W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
read the Special Features section for more details.

A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California producing gentle to moderate northerly winds, 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. For the Gulf of California,
mainly light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. Other 
than the Gale Warning area in the Tehuantepec region, light to 
gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells 
prevail for the southern Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, gale conditions and rough to very rough seas will 
persist in the Tehuantepec region through this morning. A series 
of troughs/cold fronts are forecast to move through the offshore 
waters of Baja California and Gulf of California through the 
weekend, bringing with it increasing winds and large NW swell, 
including fresh to strong winds ahead of the front in the 
northern Gulf of California tonight through early Mon. This swell
event could generate very rough seas at the outer offshore 
waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sun morning. Winds may freshen 
near Cabo Corrientes early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh offshore winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo as well 
as in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light winds prevail. Seas 
of 3 to 5 ft in S-SW swell dominate the offshore waters.

For the forecast, elevated seas due to Gulf of Tehuantepec gap 
wind will propagate through the outer waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador through this evening. Winds will pulse to fresh to 
strong in the Papagayo region later this morning through early 
Wed, with seas occasionally to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds
in the Gulf of Panama to near the Azuero Peninsula will increase
to fresh to strong tonight through Sat night with seas of 5 to 7
ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas will 
prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on upcoming
large northerly swell over the northern waters.

A low pressure trough previously across the far NW waters has
dissipated this morning. A new cold front is just starting to
enter the region around 30N140W. Elsewhere across the northern
waters, weather is dominated by a high pressure centered N of the
region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures near the equatorial trough/ITCZ maintains moderate to
locally fresh trades from 05N to 22N W of 125W. Seas are 7 to 8 
ft within these winds. Gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, other than the series of troughs/cold fronts
and associated large northerly swell mentioned above, the ridge
will weaken somewhat and shift S a bit due to the passing
boundaries. The ridge will rebuild next week, helping to freshen
trades N of the equatorial trough/ITCZ. The northerly swells 
will support seas of 7 to 10 ft across the majority of the waters
N of the ITCZ early next week.

$$
Konarik

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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Mar-2024 15:10:00 UTC