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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING...THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MARIE IS LOCATED NEAR 
30N133.5W AT 1003 MB. A SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS STILL 
SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING WITHIN 500 NM OF THE SE 
SEMICIRCLE AND MULTILAYERED MAINLY STRATOFORM CLOUDS ELSEWHERE 
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WITHIN 500 NM OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED  
MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM 150 TO 270 NM N OF THE CENTER 
AND WELL N OF THE LOCAL WATERS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS 
CONTINUE ACROSS WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE N SIDE OF THE 
CENTER...AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06 UTC 
SAT...WHEN THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N AND OUT OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO 
THE NW REACHING 32N BY LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS ACROSS 
THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW CENTER NEAR 12N97W N-NE ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE FAR W BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE WAVE HAD 
BEEN MOVING W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AT 20-25 KT THE PAST 24 
HOURS...BUT THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE EPAC IS NOW MOVING 
W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 92W AND 102W. THE 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK 
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY 
HAS SHIFTED W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEW LOW PRES NEAR 12N97W 
1008 MB TO 10N120W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING 
ON TO 12N136W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N OF 08N TO COASTS BETWEEN 80W AND 95W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N 
AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 110.  

...DISCUSSION...    

HIGH PRES PERSISTING N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W LAST NIGHT HAS 
COLLAPSED AS A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NE PACIFIC...WITH A 
NEW HIGH NOW TO THE W AND WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EXTENDS 
A NARROW RIDGE E TO NEAR 37N140W AND THEN DRAPES ACROSS AND TO 
THE N OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...THEN S-SE TO NEAR 20N122W. 
MEANWHILE TROUGHING HAS SET UP ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO. A 
MODEST PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS 6 TO 8 FT JUST W 
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE THESE 
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY NW.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES 
TO THE NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING



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Page last modified: Saturday, 30-Aug-2014 02:32:45 UTC