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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081451
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1451 UTC Thu Dec 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A light to moderate northerly
breeze is expected through the mid-afternoon, increasing to a
strong breeze late this afternoon, and then further increase to
minimal gale force during the overnight hours tonight. Seas will
quickly build to 12 ft downstream of the gulf near 15N95W by 
sunrise Friday. The gradient will continue to tighten on Friday
with winds increasing up to 45 kt Friday evening and night. Seas
will build to around 20 ft by late Friday night into early
Saturday. The gale conditions will persist through sunrise on
Sunday, then will pulse to near gale force Sunday night. Another
brief and weaker gale force wind event is possible Monday and
Monday night.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N83W to 07N100W to 10N110W
to 08N117W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from
08N117W to 09N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 10N between 97W and 101W, and also from 07N to 10N
between 108W and 111W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 09N to 13N between 111W and 127W.

Low pressure is south of the Gulf of Panama near 06N78W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm in the southwest semicircle.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh nw flow is currently
spreading s across the gulf waters, increasing to fresh to strong 
across the central gulf waters this afternoon, then spreading south
through the entrance to the gulf by this evening. The pressure
gradient will relax Friday, with fresh nw flow expected across the
southern gulf from Friday night into early Saturday.

A ridge extending from 24N116W to 16N104W will shift southwest this
afternoon. Gentle anticyclonic flow around the ridge this morning
will become moderate to fresh breeze this afternoon west of the
Baja Peninsula, and further increase occasionally to a strong
northwest breeze north of 28N within about 60 nm of the coast on
Friday and Saturday. Seas will build to around 8 ft across the
waters north of 30N with the increasing winds.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: See special features.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh offshore winds will
surge to fresh to strong tonight, and will continue to pulse to
fresh to strong mainly during the overnight hours this weekend.
Seas will also build to around 8 ft. A strong trough of low
pressure will move from the western Caribbean Sea into the Pacific
waters late Sunday through Monday. Monday guidance indicates
possible weak low pressure developing along this trough as it
moves from zones PMZ113 to PMZ111 through early next week.

Mostly light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 2
to 4 ft, are occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough, which
continues to meander along about 10N. Light to moderate southwest flow
is observed from 05N to 10N, where combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in
long period southwest swell are prevailing. Moderate to fresh
southerly flow is expected south of 05N for the next several days,
with combined seas of 3 to 5 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A 1022 mb surface high is analyzed near 29N124W with a ridge
extending southeast from the high. The high will block the
advancement of a cold front currently reaching to 32N140W,
causing it to stall from 32N137W to 31N140W through the day,
and then further weakening as it retreats back to the northwest
tonight. 

Gentle to moderate northwest to north flow is expected to the
northeast of the ridge for a couple of days. Moderate to fresh 
trades are forecast to the south-southwest of the ridge, locally
to strong tonight. Combined seas are forecast to build to up to 8
ft just north of the ITCZ late tonight through the weekend.

$$
LEWITSKY


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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Dec-2016 14:51:17 UTC