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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC MON FEB 8 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N94W AND LOWER PRES SE OF CENTRAL
AMERICA IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. AN ASCAT PASS AT
0320 UTC SHOWED 30-45 KT WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR 13.5N96W. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MAX SEAS SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. A STRONG
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE AROUND 03Z...
WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 20-22 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO STRONG GALES TUE AFTERNOON AROUND 18Z...AND PERSIST
AS A MODERATE TO STRONG GALE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL
EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH
SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO CREATE
HIGH MIXED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT
LENDING ITSELF TO ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TO 35 KT AND
TO 40 KT DURING PEAK EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. NEAR GALE NE
WINDS ARE ALSO SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE
GULF OF FONSECA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING
A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF
THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 05N122W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTS FRESH NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...AND 25 KT WINDS N OF 30N. MAX SEAS ARE NEAR 6-7 FT.
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF AND N OF 30N THROUGH TUE. 

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 13N
GENERALLY BETWEEN 115W-125W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9-11 FT. TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. AN ASCAT PASS
AT 0648 UTC SHOWED 20-30 KT S-SE WINDS IN NW PORTION OF THE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG 140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-14
FT THIS MORNING WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS IN FAR NW PORTION...THEN
BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM 30N132W TO 19N140W TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MAX SEAS
TO 10-11 FT. A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS
THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$
MUNDELL