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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192130
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jan 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The intertropical convergences zone extends from 02N84W to 
04N96W to 02N110W to 07N126W to 05N140W. No significant 
convection.

...DISCUSSION...   

...A series of strong cold fronts will affect much of the area...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front moving into Baja California Norte extends from 
30N120W to 28N126W. The front will sweep across the northern 
Gulf of California and weaken through tonight. Large northwest 
swell associated with the front will push southeastward, and 
affect the west coast of Baja California tonight and Friday. 
Strong southwest winds will precede the front north of 29N in 
the Gulf of California, then diminish slightly Friday. Then, a 
stronger cold front will sweep eastward into Baja California 
Norte Friday night, with even stronger winds and higher seas. 
Large northwest swell will build max seas to 16-20 ft in Pacific 
waters north of 25N through Saturday night. Mariners can expect 
hazardous marine conditions near shore and coastal waters, and 
very dangerous surf conditions along the coast.

High pressure building behind the front will support strong 
northerly flow off the southern Gulf of California and off Cabo 
Corrientes by late Sunday as the leading edge of the 8 ft 
northwest swell reaches the coast near Manzanillo. Another front
will push into to the waters off Baja California Norte by late
Sunday with another round of strong northwest winds and 12 to 15
ft northwest swell.

Farther south, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of 
Mexico will prompt strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
Sunday night and Monday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo will become 
light to gentle by this evening. light to gentle easterly winds 
will prevail elsewhere through Saturday. Seas will be generally 
3-5 ft in the forecast waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends eastward along 25N to the Baja peninsula. The 
gradient between the ridge and low pressure associated with the 
ITCZ is supporting a decreasing area of fresh northeast trade 
winds west of 130W, with 8-9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades 
are elsewhere from 06N to 19N west of 122W. Seas within these 
areas of fresh trades are 7-8 ft in mixed NE and NW swell. 
Expect the trades to decrease in coverage and shift westward 
through Saturday.

A second cold front is expected to sweep southeastward across 
the northern waters tonight through Friday night. Wave model 
guidance shows unusually large northwest swell will propagate 
southeastward into the waters north of 20N behind the second 
front, with seas building to 16-22 ft north of 25N and east of 
130W Saturday. Yet another cold front will move into the far 
northwest waters on Saturday, preceded and followed by strong 
winds. This front will generate another set of large northwest 
swell through the northwest waters, with wave model guidance 
indicating seas in the 14-21 ft range.

$$
Mundell