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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 050944

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Dec 05 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.


A surface trough extends from 17N101W to 12N103W where
scatterometer winds indicate the axis of the monsoon trough
begins and extends sw to 08N124W where scatterometer winds
indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which continues westward to
beyond 09N140W.

Clusters of isolated moderate to occasionally strong convection
are observed along the Pacific coast of Colombia from 03N to 09N
to the e of 79W, and also within the area bounded from 06N to
13N between 82N and 96W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the
monsoon trough, within 150 nm either side of a line from 13N103W
to 09N133W.



Gulf of California: Gentle se flow is expected n of 29N early
today increasing to a moderate breeze this afternoon to the
south of an e to w trough expected to develop along 31N. The
next cold front is expected to pass se across the northern gulf
waters on Wed, with fresh to locally strong post-frontal flow
forecast on Wed night. Light and variable winds are forecast
across the gulf waters s of 29N through Wed, then becoming a
strong nw breeze behind the cold front.

A gentle to moderate n breeze expected w of 105W today as seas
continue subside from 5 to 8 ft in nw swell currently observed w
of the Baja Peninsula, to mainly across the waters n of 28N by
mid week. 

A low level trough extends from 17N101W to 12N103W with clusters
of moderate to locally strong convection occasionally flaring
within 120 nm either side of the trough axis. This trough will
appear intermittently on the surface analysis, as it shifts se
to a position from 17N99W to 11N105W during the middle of the

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong n surge is expected to
begin late Thu afternoon and gradually strengthen to minimal
gale force late Thu night, with the gale conditions continuing
through sunrise on Sun. Combined seas are expected to build to
about 20 ft downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near
14.5N95.5W on Fri.


Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal ene winds
are expected to begin again late Tue night with a strong
drainage event expected on Fri night. 

Mostly light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 4
to 6 ft, are occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough, while
light to moderate sw flow is observed to the s of the monsoon
trough, except moderate to fresh southerly breeze is forecast
seaward of 200 nm. Combined seas of 4 to 6 ft in the long-period
sw swell are through the middle of next week.


A surface ridge extending se from 32N134W to 12N106W will
reorientate around a surface high shifting se into the n-central
waters near 32N126W on Wed. This high will then block the
eastward advance of cold fronts from entering the area this week.
Moderate to locally fresh nw to n flow is expected ne of the
ridge this week. Fresh ne trades currently s of the ridge are
expected to weaken from the n through Tue night, then increase
to moderate to locally fresh again across the deep tropics on
Wed and Thu. Seas of 7 to 10 ft, in mixing sw and nw swell,
currently n of the ITCZ and west of 112W are expected to
gradually subside from the n this week.