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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260902
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 UTC Mon Jun 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Hurricane Dora is centered near 16.7N 105.3W 
at 26/0900 UTC, moving west- northwest or 295 degrees at 11 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate and 
scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center 
of Dora. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted elsewhere from 07N to 13N between 90W and 98W. Dora is 
forecast to continue on a west-northwest track and begin a
weakening trend Tuesday as the system moves over cooler waters
and into a more stable environment. Swells generated by Dora are
affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These 
swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting 
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula 
on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions. Locally heavy rainfall from Dora
may affect portions of southwest Mexico, especially along the 
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan 
today. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details on the track and intensity
of Dora, and the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
Headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on marine impacts 
of Dora.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N95W, it then 
resumes from 12N108W to 08N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 82W 
and 85W, and from 12N to 14N between 87W and 91W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features for more information on Tropical Storm Dora.

Outside of the influence of Dora, gentle to moderate winds 
prevail west of Baja California Norte with light to gentle winds
off the coast of southwest Mexico and over the Gulf of California.
Seas are in the 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft 
elsewhere. These conditions will prevail over the next several
days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across 
most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception
of mainly south winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue 
to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft 
through Monday. Cross equatorial long period southerly swell is
expected to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands tonight into Tuesday, building seas up to 10 ft late on 
Tuesday, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Light and variable winds prevail N of 25N W of 125W, with gentle
to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft 
range. These seas are forecast to subside below 8 ft in about 24 
hours, with winds and seas remaining below advisory criteria 
through midweek. 

$$
AL