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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250215
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jun 25 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N91W to 10N116W.
ITCZ west of a trough from 17N115W to 08N125W, extending from
11N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection within 90 nm north and 45 nm south of monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...   

Unseasonably weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the
entire forecast area. As a result, easterly winds are generally
light to gentle on either side of the convergence zone boundary.
Scatterometer data shows a few small areas of moderate to fresh
trade winds, but nothing very significant except for some fresh
southerly winds S of Panama, north of 05N and east of 81W. This
area is seeing active convection this evening. Long period SSW
cross-equatorial swell is starting to subside across the region
based on altimeter data. Expect this trend to continue through
the weekend. Model guidance suggests a surface low may develop
tonight or Sat near 11N123W from the trough mentioned previously
extending from 17N115W to 08N125W. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

$$
Mundell