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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200239
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 135.3W...OR 1151 NM E 
OF HILO HAWAII AT 20/0300 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 4 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE N...AND 120 NM IN THE S AND W 
QUADRANTS. A CONTINUED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED  
AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY WED NIGHT WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR NEAR 18.7N 120.7W...OR 656 NM WSW OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 20/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 
315 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM IN THE 
E SEMICIRCLE...240 NM IN THE SW...AND 90 NM IN THE NW QUADRANTS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 150 AND 240 NM IN THE E 
QUADRANT...AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 240 AND 420 NM IN THE SE 
QUADRANT. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND 
WED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NNW WED NIGHT WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN STRENGTH. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEAK LOW PRES IS FORMING NEAR 08N93W ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION 
OF A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE S 
SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM IN THE W QUADRANT. 
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS 
THAN 8 FT...HOWEVER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WHICH WILL FEED INTO THE 
LOW CIRCULATION WITH THE WINDS EXPANDING AND SPREADING WESTWARD 
AROUND THE LOW AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM 
FORMATION CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 08N93W TO NEAR THE 
GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO THE EXTREME 
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SEE THE DISCUSSION 
ABOUT THE LOW ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR   
08N93W TO 12N112W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W... 
FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 
103W AND 106W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

1026 MB HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 41N145W 
EXTENDING A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N132W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 27N115W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE N AS LOWELL MOVES IN 
A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING 
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W        
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND W OF COLOMBIA IN THE NE PACIFIC IS HELPING TO 
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS PANAMA 
AND GUATEMALA AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING.

$$
LEWITSKY



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Aug-2014 02:39:22 UTC