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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231546
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1540 UTC Wed Aug 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 24.6N 135.1W at 1500 UTC,
moving NNW at 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure 
is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 
kt. Convection has nearly dissipated as Kenneth has moved over 
cooler waters, with some scattered moderate convection lingering
within 120 nm of the northern semicircle. Kenneth will continue 
to weaken, likely becoming a tropical depression by tonight and 
remnant low Thursday. Please refer to the National Hurricane 
Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 
KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS 
headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis along 95W from 03N to 15N. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection are from 06N to 13N
between 94W and 100W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 12N100W to 11N120W to
08N130W. The intertropical convergence zone extends from 08N130W
to 07N140W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from
04N to 08N, east of 90W, and within 150 NM of either side of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ axis, west of 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough will prevail across the Gulf of California 
through the end of the week with a weak surface low developing 
at times along the trough north of 29N. Fresh winds will pulse
off the coast of Baja California Sur from 24N to 27N during this
time frame. Elsewhere the pressure gradient between this 
trough and surface ridging W of the area will allow moderate NW 
winds off Baja California through Friday evening, then decreasing
to a gentle breeze through Monday night. Seas will remain 
between 3 and 5 ft during this period. Increasing southwesterly 
winds to the south of the area may bring 6 to 9 ft swell to the 
offshore waters south of 15N Saturday through Tuesday. Fresh to 
strong SW winds will accompany the swell starting Sunday evening 
through Tuesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough 
through Sunday while moderate to fresh WSW winds are expected S 
of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Cross 
equatorial swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate across the area 
beginning on Saturday, persisting through early next week.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure northwest of the 
area and Tropical Storm Kenneth is producing fresh northwest
winds and a broad area of 8 to 10 ft seas N of 17N and W of 130W,
far removed from the tropical cyclone. These winds and seas will
shift north to northwest with what is left of Kenneth through 
Saturday. Moderate to locally fresh NNE to NE flow is forecast 
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W, and moderate NW 
flow east of 120W. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is forecast 
south of the monsoon trough through Friday. By Saturday, models 
are forecasting a slight intensification of the southerly flow 
south of the monsoon trough east of 120W. This should build seas 
to 7 to 9 ft from about 05N to 15N, east of 120W Saturday through
Tuesday. 

$$
Latto

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 23-Aug-2017 15:46:57 UTC