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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO 07N107W THEN RESUMES FROM 06N125W  
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  
IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 90W...AND FROM 02N TO 07N W 
OF 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW AND N CENTRAL 
WATERS EXTENDING FROM 32N110W THROUGH 20N120W TO 11N130W. WATER 
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR W OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT 
AROUND IT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS TO THE E OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AHEAD 
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N142W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 28N127W TO 
18N104W. A PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...THE 
EASTERN ONE EXTENDING FROM 15N104W TO 08N109W...AND THE WESTERN 
ONE FROM 14N120W TO 05N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS IS TIGHT ENOUGH BETWEEN THESE 
FEATURES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADE WINDS WITH AN 
AREA OF SURROUNDING COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS 
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS OR SO.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST N OF THE     
AREA AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA. THESE 
WINDS ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS SEEPING 
INTO THE N CENTRAL DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-
N WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALSO 
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT EVENING WHICH WILL THEN 
PERSIST THROUGH SUN WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 8-11 
FT BY SUN AFTERNOON.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM FAR NW     
CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N115W TO 29N114W. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT WHICH WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
REGION WILL TIGHTEN SAT AFTERNOON WITH A POCKET OF 20-30 KT 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BY 00 UTC SUN INTO SAT 
EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG LEVELS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT DURING PEAK 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH 
TO STRONG JUST SW OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE 
MORNING SAT AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS.

$$ 
LEWITSKY

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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Apr-2015 21:21:59 UTC