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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080945
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Dec 08 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A light to moderate n breeze
expected through mid afternoon today, then the n flow will
increase to a strong breeze late this afternoon, and then
further increase to minimal gale force during the overnight
hours tonight with seas building to 12 ft downstream of the gulf
near 15N95W at sunrise on Fri. The gradient will continue to
tighten on Fri with 30 to 40 kt conditions expected late Fri
with seas building to about 18 ft near 14.5N95.5W at sunset on
Fri. The gale conditions will persist through sunrise on Sun.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends sw off the n coast of Costa Rica at
10N85W to 08N100W, then turns nw 09N110W, then sw to 09N115W
where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which
continues w to beyond 08N140W. Isolated moderate to strong
convection is noted from 04N to 08N e of 83W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm either side
of a line from 08N97W to 12N109W to 11N126W to 08N134W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh nw flow is currently
spreading s across the central gulf waters, and will dominate
the entire gulf by late morning. This nw flow will increase to a
strong breeze across the central gulf waters this afternoon, and
spread s across the southern half this evening. The pressure
gradient will relax Fri, with fresh nw flow expected across the
southern gulf from Fri night into early Sat.

A ridge extending from 23N116W to 14N94W will shift sw this
afternoon. Gentle anticyclonic flow around the ridge this
morning will become moderate to fresh breeze this afternoon w of
the Baja Peninsula, and further increase to a strong nw breeze n
of 28N within about 60 nm of the coast on Fri and Sat, with seas
building to 8 ft across the waters n of 30N late in the
weekend.  

Gulf of Tehuantepec: See special features.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal ene winds
are expected at sunrise this morning. A strong gap event with
seas to 8 ft is expected tonight, Fri and on Sat nights with a
brief event on Sun night.

Mostly light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 2
to 4 ft, are occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough which
is meandering e to w along about 10N. Light to moderate sw flow
is observed from 05N to 10N where combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in
long-period sw swell are expected this week. Moderate to fresh
southerly flow expected s of 05N for the next several days with
combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in sw swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A 1022 mb surface high is analyzed near 30N125W with a ridge
extending se to near 14N94W. This high will block the eastward
advance of a cold front, causing it to stall from 32N137W to
31N140W today, and then further weaken as it drifts w on Thu
night. 

Gentle to moderate nw to n flow is expected ne of the ridge for
a couple of days. Moderate to fresh ne trades are forecast s of
the ridge, seas building to 5 to 8 ft on Fri. 

$$ 
Nelson