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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 212205

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.


High pressure building behind a strong fast moving cold front in 
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday will induce gale force 
winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning around 0900 UTC 
Monday. The high will slide quickly eastward, which will allow 
winds to diminish below gale force by 0000 UTC Tuesday. Please 
see the latest East Pacific high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for further details. 


The ITCZ extends from 07N97W to 08N107W to 06N116W to 07N124W to 
05N128W to 03N140W. No significant convection.


...A series of strong cold fronts and a prolonged period of 
unusually large swell will affect most of the forecast area...


A surface trough, what is left from a cold front moving into 
northwest Mexico, extends from 31N112W across Baja California to 
23N121W. A small area of fresh to strong westerly winds is north 
of 28N in the Gulf of California. Strong northwest winds and 
seas of 12-21 ft are affecting waters north of 25N. The large 
northwest swell will continue to propagate southeast, and will 
continue into the deep tropics the next several days. By Sunday 
morning, seas will build to 20 ft off Baja California Norte. The 
leading edge of high seas will reach Socorro Island late Sunday 
morning. Ridging behind the front will allow strong northerly 
winds to spread to the southern Gulf of California and off Cabo 
Corrientes by late Sunday. Another cold front will produce a 
reinforcing set of long period NW swell, which will maintain 
seas in the 12 to 20 foot range through Tuesday. Strong winds 
sustaining the swell event will diminish Tuesday as the high 
weakens, with seas finally decreasing below 12 ft in offshore 
Mexico waters by Wednesday night. However, seas of 8 to 10 ft 
will remain west of 100W through the end of the week. High 
pressure building in behind a strong cold front in the Gulf of 
Mexico will increase the pressure gradient across the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec and cause gap winds to increase to gale force over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Monday morning. Please see the special 
features section for more details. 


Light to gentle southeast to east winds will prevail across most 
of the region through Tuesday. Seas will be generally 3-5 ft in 
the forecast waters. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse in the 
Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama Tuesday night and Wednesday night 
as high pressure passes north of the Caribbean basin.


The pressure gradient between a cold front approaching southern 
California and high pressure centered near 26N125W supports 
strong northwesterly winds across northern waters west of 132W. 
A large northwesterly swell event is spreading across the waters 
with 12 ft seas dominating north of 21N and reaching as high as 
26 ft along 30N. Seas of 8 ft or greater extend northwest of a 
line from 22N109W to 04N140W. Large swell will continue to sweep 
southeastward with 8 ft seas nearing the equator Sunday night.
Global models continue to show gale force winds associated with 
the cold front moving across the northern waters remaining just 
north of 30N through Sunday night. These winds will help to re-
enforce the northwest swell with seas of 18 to 23 ft west of the 
front where the near gale winds are occurring. 

Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, with 4-7 
ft seas expected through Monday. NE swell from the Tehuantepec 
high wind event will increase seas to 8-10 ft Monday night.