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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292202
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from a low in NW Colombia near 
09N75W to 10N84W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 13N100W to 
11N113W to 07N124W. The ITCZ axis then continues from 07N124W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 08N between 77W and 81W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the axis between 102W and
105W, between 107W and 110W, and also within 60 nm north of 
the axis between 115W and 118W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh northwest winds continue to prevail west of the
Gulf of California this morning, supported by high pressure to
the west and surface troughs over Baja California and mainland 
Mexico. The high will retrograde westward tonight, allowing winds
to relax to mainly moderate east of Baja California through 
Tuesday morning. On Tuesday, models continue to forecast low 
pressure to deepen over the interior portion of the western 
United States. The combination of this and high pressure present
to the west of the Baja California will tighten the pressure 
gradient just west and northwest of Baja California Norte, 
resulting in fresh northwest winds and combined seas of 7 to 9 
ft in northwest swell north of 29N between 120W and 126W
beginning on Tuesday afternoon, and spreading southward to neat 
27N between 119W and 124W by Wednesday afternoon.

Mainly light to gentle southeast to south winds are expected 
over the Gulf of California through early Tuesday, then increase 
to gentle to moderate winds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Seas 
will be in the range of 1 to 2 ft, except for slightly higher 
seas of 3 to 4 ft over the entrance to the Gulf of California.

Elsewhere, a 1009 mb low centered near 13N100W is associated
with a broad area of low pressure that is located to the south 
of southern Mexico. This area of low pressure will slowly 
lift northward through Wednesday. Given that the atmosphere 
surrounding this low pressure is very moist as observed in 
TPW animated imagery and very unstable at the time, expect 
clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist along 
and just offshore the coast of southeastern Mexico, including the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. As a result, heavy rainfall and localized 
flooding will be possible over these coastal sections through 
this week. Gusty winds and seas briefly reaching to 8 ft will be
possible with the strongest of the shower and thunderstorm 
activity. Gradual development of the low pressure is possible as 
well during the week. Otherwise, mainly light to gentle winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft will prevail over the Mexican offshore waters 
south of the Baja California Peninsula through Wednesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moisture southerly flow associated with the Monsoon Trough axis
that stretches from NW Colombia to near 10N90W will continue
to provide support for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms mainly north of 04N. Some of this activity may 
contain strong gusty winds and rough seas. Light to gentle winds
will prevail north of the trough axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. 
Mainly moderate south to southwest winds are expected south of 
the trough axis with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 30N133W with a ridge 
extending southeastward to 26N126W and to near 20N118W. High 
pressure covers the area north of 16N and west of 117W. The
associated gradient between the ridge and lower pressure to the 
south in the deep tropics is supporting fresh northeast trades 
from 07N to 15N west of 133W, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed
northeast and southeast swell. This area of winds and seas is
forecast to gradually shrink through Wednesday as the ridge
retreats westward. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed northeast and 
southeast swell will linger within the same general area by 
Wednesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds will continue over the
remainder of the northwestern waters through Wednesday with 5 to
7 ft seas. Fresh northwest winds are forecast to develop north 
of 27N and east of 125W tonight as the pressure gradient between 
low pressure deepening inland over the SW United States and high 
pressure over the northwest and north/central waters tightens. 
These winds will support 7 to 9 ft seas over that area through 
Wednesday night.

$$
Aguirre

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Page last modified: Monday, 29-May-2017 22:02:23 UTC