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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290226
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Mar 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale conditions are forecast 
to persist in the Tehuantepec region tonight into Fri morning, 
with seas building to 10 to 15 ft overnight. Swell generated by 
this gap wind event will spread southwestward, creating 8 to 11 
ft seas as far west as 100W and as far south as 09N by Fri 
morning. Winds and seas should begin to diminish late Fri 
afternoon. Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, especially 
local fishermen, need to take necessary action to avoid these 
hazardous marine conditions.

Large Northerly Swell Event: A series of cold fronts will drop S
of 30N across the northerly waters the next few days with
reinforcing sets of northerly swell. Seas will build to 12 ft or
greater S of 30N Fri night, reaching to 25N between 120W and 136W
by Sat evening when peak seas are forecast to build to around 16
ft along 30N. These seas will continue to spread SE through the
end of the weekend into early next week before subsiding. Wave
periods will be around 12 seconds. Very hazardous marine 
conditions will occur with these waves over the open waters, and 
also at the coast of Baja California Norte likely resulting in 
dangerous surf conditions. Please consult products from your 
national weather service for more details on conditions near the 
coast.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on
both areas.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from northern Colombia to 05N85W to
03N104W. The ITCZ is south of the Equator and runs westward 
from 03N104W to the Equator near 137W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from the Equator to 07N between 90W
and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 09N 
between 131W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
read the Special Features section for more details.

A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California producing gentle to moderate northerly winds,
locally fresh nearshore western Baja California, with seas of 5 
to 7 ft. For the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate NW winds 
and 2 to 4 ft seas are present across central and southern parts
of the Gulf, while light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft 
exist at the northern Gulf. Other than the Gale Warning area in 
the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 
ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the southern Mexico 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, gale conditions and rough to very rough seas 
will persist in the Tehuantepec region through Fri morning. A 
strong cold front is forecast to move through the offshore waters
of Baja California and northern Gulf of California this weekend,
bringing with it increasing winds and large NW swell, including 
fresh to strong winds ahead of the front in the northern Gulf of 
California Fri night through early Mon. This swell event could 
generate very rough seas at the outer offshore waters north of 
Punta Eugenia by Sun morning. Winds may freshen near Cabo 
Corrientes early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Abundant moisture in a southerly wind flow is triggering isolated
to scattered showers in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. 
Otherwise, mainly light to gentle SE to S winds and 3 to 6 ft 
seas prevail across the offshore waters of Central America,
Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, starting early on Fri, increasing gap winds 
and rising seas will occur in the Papagayo area, and Gulf of 
Panama as high pressure builds north of the area. Swell generated
by gap winds at the Tehuantepec region will cause rough seas 
across the far southwestern offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador tonight through Fri. Elsewhere, convergent southwesterly
winds along with abundant moisture will continue to support 
sporadic showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Galapagos 
Islands and in the Costa Rica and West Panama offshore waters 
through at least Fri. Winds and seas could be higher near 
thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 
will prevail across the remainder of the waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
upcoming large northerly swell event over the northern waters.

A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters while a weakening
cold front extends from 30N128W to 25N140W. A few showers are 
along the frontal boundary. Moderate northerly winds at most follow
the front with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except building to around 8 ft
near 30N between 130W and 140W. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressures near the equatorial trough/ITCZ 
maintains moderate to fresh trades from 04N to 22N W of 130W. 
Seas are 7 to 8 ft within these winds. Mainly moderate winds and 
6 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken somewhat while
shifting S with the series of fronts mentioned above move through
the northern waters along with the associated significant
northerly swells. Fresh to strong winds will accompany the fronts
tomorrow evening through the weekend. The northerly swells will
support seas of 7 to 10 ft across the majority of the waters N of
the ITCZ early next week. Trades will freshen next week from the
ITCZ to around 20N and W of 110W as ridging rebuilds in the wake
of the fronts.

$$
Lewitsky

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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Mar-2024 02:26:46 UTC