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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT NOV 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN 
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG GALE FORCE N-NE 
WINDS OF 35-40 KT N OF 14N IN THE GULF WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS 
TO 21 FT. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1542 UTC SHOWED GALE FORCE 
WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 13N96W. THE CARGO SHIP CAP 
PASLEY CALL SIGN A8NQ6 REPORTED 43 KT NEAR 14.6N 95.2W AT 1800 
UTC. NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTEND AS FAR S AS 10N BETWEEN 98W-
102W. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY SAT...AND FALL BELOW 
GALE FORCE BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9-12 FT AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE MON 
NIGHT...THEN LAST THROUGH LATE WED. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 07N90W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 07N108W TO 11N121W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 
103W AND 114W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 24N140W. A SECOND COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W. THE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND 
BECOME STATIONARY SAT MORNING FROM 30N130W TO 23N138W THEN 
WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH SAT EVENING. NW SWELL W OF THE FRONT 
ARE PRODUCING COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8-9 FT. ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NW WATERS SUN WITH 20-30 KT VEERING 
WESTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10-13 FT. NEW BATCH OF LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 
21 FT EXPECTED NEAR 32N140W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT RELATED TO CARIBBEAN HIGH 
PRES WILL MAINTAIN NE 20-30 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS 
AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH 
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT...THEN NOCTURNAL MAX WILL REACH 
20-25 KT SAT THROUGH TUE. 

$$
MUNDELL



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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Nov-2014 03:12:59 UTC