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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Aug 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth, centered near 26N137W, remains a 
well organized gale-force tropical low without deep convection. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained 
winds are 35 kt. Gale-force winds are expected mainly within 60 
nm N and NW of the low center during the next 36-42 hours, then 
weaken as the pressure gradient associated with high pressure N 
of the area relaxes. Please see the High Seas Forecast under 
WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave N of 06N along 99W is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 08N to 10N between 96W and 101W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 12N115W to 1011 mb low 
near 10N136W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
from 07N to 12N between 131W and 139W. Another area of scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side 
of a line from 08N86W to 14N92W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough across the Gulf of California will stay in the 
area through the end of the week with a weak surface low 
developing at times along the trough mainly north of 29N. Fresh 
winds will pulse off the coast of Baja California Sur from 24N 
to 27N during this time frame. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient 
between this trough and surface ridging W of the area will allow 
moderate NW winds off Baja California through Friday evening, 
then decreasing to a gentle breeze through Monday night. Seas 
will remain between 2 and 4 ft during this period. Increasing 
southwesterly winds to the south of the area may bring 6 to 9 ft 
swell to the offshore waters south of 15N Saturday through 
Tuesday. Fresh to strong SW winds will accompany the swell 
starting Sunday evening through Tuesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough 
through the weekend while moderate to fresh SW winds are 
expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Cross
equatorial swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate across the area 
beginning on Friday, persisting through the weekend and early 
next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure NW of the area and 
the remnants of Kenneth is producing fresh NE winds and a broad 
area of 8 to 10 ft seas N of 23N and W of 133W. These winds and 
seas will shift north to northwest with the remnant low through 
Sat. Moderate to locally fresh NE flow is forecast elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough and W of 130W, and moderate NW flow east 
of 130W. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is forecast south of 
the monsoon trough through Friday. By Saturday, models are 
forecasting a slight intensification of the southerly flow south 
of the monsoon trough east of 130W. This should build seas to 7 
to 9 ft from 05N to 15N east of 130W through early next week. 

$$

Mundell

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Page last modified: Thursday, 24-Aug-2017 09:21:11 UTC