Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 220602

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.


High pressure building behind a cold front moving off the Texas 
coast Sunday night will tighten the pressure gradient along the 
Veracruz coast of Mexico, and induce gale force winds south of 
20N west of 95W from Monday through Tuesday.


A tropical wave in the western Atlantic is analyzed along 51W, 
but based on long term satellite animation, will be relocated 
further east along 47W at 0600 UTC. The wave is moving west at 
10 kt, embedded in an area moderate moisture as seen on SSMI TPW 
imagery, and troughing at 700 mb. Scattered showers are from 10N-
16N between 45W-50W.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean extending from 21N85W 
to 10N83W is moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in deep 
moisture with a well defined surface trough, and broad troughing 
at 700 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
15N-20N between 81W-88W.


A monsoon trough is near the African coast from 10N14W to 
08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 07N34W to 08N58W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 32W-44W. 



High pressure prevails across the NE Gulf. Widespread showers 
across the eastern Gulf are being enhanced by divergent upper 
level winds. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight, and a 
tropical wave will move across the Yucatan peninsula through 
Monday. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the cold 
front Monday and Tuesday.


A tropical wave over the Gulf of Honduras will move across 
Central America Monday. The eastern extent of the E Pacific 
monsoon trough over Costa Rica and Panama is producing scattered 
moderate convection S of 11N. A large upper level anticyclone is 
centered near 17N80W with extensive moisture. Strong subsidence 
is over the E Caribbean E of 75W. Saharan Airmass Layer Imagery 
also shows a plume of dry air and dust over the E Caribbean E of 
67W. Expect continued fair weather over most of the basin during 
the next 24 hours.


Fair weather prevails over Hispaniola except for high level 
clouds. Expect little change during the next 24 hours as 
relatively dry subsident air remains in place over the island. 


A dissipating cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N52W to 
25N63W. Diffluence east of an upper low centered near 29N66W is 
enhancing scattered showers associated with the front. High 
pressure is north of 30N on either side of the front, in the 
eastern Atlantic and over the eastern U.S. An upper level low 
centered near 23N43W is producing scattered showers east of the 
low due to upper level diffluence.

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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 06:02:38 UTC