Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 191045

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
545 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.


As of 0900 UTC, a fast moving cold front over the N Gulf of 
Mexico extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W, to the NW 
Gulf near 24N96W, to N of Tampico Mexico near 22.5N98W. Gale 
force northerly winds are W of 90W and N of front, with seas to 8 
ft. The cold front in 24 hours will extend from S Florida to the 
SW Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds will persist for the next 24
hours over portions of the Gulf. See the latest high seas 
forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details. 


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 
07N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
07N20W to 06N40W to the South American coast near 07N58W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 14W-21W, 
and from 04N-07N between 31W-36W.



A cold front and gale are over the N Gulf of Mexico. See above. 
Scattered showers are within 15 nm of the front. Radar imagery
also shows the remainder of the Gulf is void of precipitation. 
5-15 kt southerly winds are S of the front. Mostly fair weather is
S of the front. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with 
strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for the front to extend from
S Florida to the SW Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds will then 
be S of 21N W of front. 


A 1007 mb low is centered near the N tip of Colombia at 13.5N71W.
A surface trough extends NE from the low through the Mona Passage
to the Atlantic near 21N64W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is near the low from 12N-17N between 68W-72W, to 
include Aruba and Curacao. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 
360 nm E of the trough axis, to include Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the 
NW Caribbean with axis from E Cuba near 20N74W to the Gulf of 
Honduras near 16N89W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough is 
enhancing the showers and convection over the central Caribbean 
Sea. Expect the area of convection to drift E and persist for the 
next 48 hours.


Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola, and will continue 
through Monday. Expect convection to be heaviest over E 
Hispaniola in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum 
heating. Localized flooding is also possible during this time.


A 1018 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 34N62W 
producing fair weather. A stationary front is over the central 
Atlantic from 31N39W to 25N50W, to 21N59W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 180 nm of the front. A 1018 mb high is 
centered over the E Atlantic near 30N27W also producing fair 
weather. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough 
is over the W Atlantic enhancing the central Atlantic with upper 
level diffluence. Another upper level trough is over the far E 
Atlantic and Morocco. 

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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Nov-2017 10:45:46 UTC