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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271750
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 20N AND W 
OF 95W BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES MOVING E ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. 
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 9-13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N12W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ 
IS LOCATED FROM 05S15W TO 06S28W TO 03S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 100 MN OF THESE BOUNDARIES. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 
35N81W AND EXTENDING ITS COLD FRONT SW TO 30N84W THEN ACROSS THE 
GULF WATERS TO 26N90W TO 20N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN N OF 22N AND E 
OF 97W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF WATERS...FOR 
MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. 
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
EXTENDING FROM 26N85W TO 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE E GULF MAINLY E OF 
87W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED W OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO 19N91W TO 18N95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 19N BETWEEN 91W-94W. 
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER 
DATA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO 
CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION. A STRONG 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER 
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                    

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH AMERICA. A 1031 MB 
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE 
CARIBBEAN. WITH THESE FEATURES...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR 
PREVAIL OVER THE BASIN SUPPORTING BENIGN WEATHER. SLIGHT TO 
GENTLE TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER MOST OF 
THE AREA EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-75W WHERE GENTLE TO 
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING FAIR 
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W 
ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF...ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO 
30N76W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO 
THE E...A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N51W 
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N36W TO 
24N43W...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH 22N48W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 36W-44W. A STATIONARY 
1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING 
FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITH 
CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL 
CONTINUE WEAKENING AND BECOMING A TROUGH.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Mar-2015 17:50:54 UTC