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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 261141

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.


Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 23.9N 47.6W at 26/0900
UTC or about 980 nm east-northeast of the Leeward Islands and
about 1140 nm east-southeast of Bermuda moving northwest at 15
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 23N-26N between
41W-48W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.


Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends along
22W/23W from 8N-17N with a weak 1009 mb low along the wave near
13N. The wave/low is moving west-southwest near 10 kt over the
past 12 hours. Wave is embedded within an area of dry stable
air, thus no associated showers or convection. 

Tropical wave in the southwest Atlantic/north Caribbean extends
from 26N72W through a weak 1009 mb low near 21N75W to 17N76W
moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides
with a well defined 700 mb global model trough and is embedded
within an area of deep moisture. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are south of 23N between 68W and the wave axis and
from 23N-25N between 68W-70W. 


The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 20N16W and continues through the 1009 mb low along
the tropical wave then 6N37W to 7N43W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 10N51W to near 10N60W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are within 120/150 nm of a line from 7N20W
4N36W to 5N42W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are
from 8N-11N between 50W-55W. 



A broad upper ridge is anchored over western North Carolina
extending an upper ridge axis southwest to the central Texas
coast covering the Gulf waters north of 25N. An elongated upper
trough extends from Mexico near Tampico across the south Gulf to
west Cuba creating a diffluent environment to generate scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf within 120 nm
of line from 26N83W 27N90W to inland over the lower Mississippi
Vally near the Louisiana/Texas border. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms dot the remainder of the Gulf except north of 28N
east of 88W where clear skies prevail. A weak surface ridge
extends from over the southeast CONUS anchored by a 1020 mb high
over western North Carolina. This surface ridge will persist
through Saturday night. A strong tropical wave will move into
the east Gulf late in the weekend.


An upper ridge dominates the Caribbean this morning anchored off
the coast of Honduras and extending an upper ridge axis east to
over the Lesser Antilles. An upper trough is north of the
Greater Antilles and creating a diffluent environment to
generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
15N across Jamaica and to Cuba between 76W-82W. Scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are north of 17N to
over Hispaniola between 69W-76W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are north of a line from 15N63W to 17N68W
including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The low associated
with the tropical wave just north of the Caribbean will continue
to move west-northwest. This could bring heavy rains, with the
potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, likely over
Hispaniola and eastern and central Cuba during the next couple
of days.   


Currently scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
are over the island. Heavy rains, and possible flash floods and
mud slides will continue over the island through today. 


A series of upper troughs cover the west Atlantic this morning.
At the surface, a surface trough extends from 29N76W to 24N80W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are west of the
surface trough to inland over Florida and through the Straits of
Florida. A dissipating stationary front extends through 32N67W
to 28N72W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from
27N-31N between 62W and the front. The tropical wave and the
associated activity are in the southwest Atlantic. Please see
tropical wave section above. A cutoff upper low is in the
central Atlantic near 22N54W and is generating scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms from 24N-29N between 48W-55W.
The remainder of the east Atlantic north of Hurricane Gaston
east of 60W is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a series
of highs north of the discussion area. A strong tropical wave
and associated 1009 mb low will move into the Straits of Florida
through late in the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall are also possible over portions of the Bahamas during
the next few days. 

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