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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281659
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A dying occlusion and cold front extends from a 1009 mb low 
pressure near 26N59W to northeast of the Windward Islands near 
17N56W. A trough extends from the end of the dying cold front to
the southeast Caribbean near 12N64W. A broad high pressure ridge
NE of the front is inducing a tight pressure gradient along and
northeast of the front. Strong to gale force winds are noted
within 300 nm east of the front, N of 21N and W of 43W. Seas 
within this zone are 10 to 16 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted east of the front from 17N to 31N between 44W and 52W.
The surface low pressure will move SE and continue to weaken. The
front will also continue to drift eastward and weaken. This will 
cause winds to drop below gale force later this afternoon. The 
strong winds will continue through the weekend as the next frontal
system moves across the western Atlantic. 

...ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

Very large northerly swell, that has originating in the NE 
Atlantic offshore of Europe, is beginning to enter the far NE 
Atlantic waters S of 31N and E of 40W. Seas will quickly build to
12 ft and greater and peak around 18 feet tonight. Seas of 12 ft 
will reach as far W as 46W early Fri while merging with the very 
rough seas with the gale force event mentioned above. The seas 
will move as far S as 18N by Fri night before moving eastward 
beyond 35W Fri night into Sat morning.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 09N13W to 00N26W. The ITCZ continues from 00N26W to 
00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 12W and 23W and from 
02S to 02N between 38W and 45W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow moving cold front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to the
Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are moving across the extreme
southeast Gulf of Mexico along and ahead of the front. The
stronger thunderstorms have moved into the NW Caribbean and over
Cuba. Fresh to strong NW winds prevail behind the front across 
the central and eastern Gulf with moderate to fresh winds ahead of
the front. Seas in this area range 7 to 10 ft. In the western 
Gulf, high pressure continues to build behind the front. Light to 
gentle winds are occurring along the Texas and Mexico coast W of 
94W under the influence of the high. Seas range 2 to 4 ft in this 
area. 

For the forecast, a strong thunderstorms will continue along the 
front across the SE Gulf this morning, as the front moves SE and
clears the Gulf basin later today. Fresh to strong NE winds and 
moderate to rough seas will follow the front across the Gulf. 
Winds and seas will subside late tonight into Fri as high pressure
moves across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking 
ahead, the high pressure will shift E and support fresh E to SE 
winds across the western Gulf Sat through Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front stretches to the east of the Yucatan and Belize.
Ahead of the front, a cluster of strong thunderstorms are noted in
the NW Caribbean from 17N to 22N between 83W and 86W. Moderate to
fresh NW winds are noted behind the front along the coastline in
addition to the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the Yucatan Channel are
to 5 ft with 2 to 4 ft seas across the rest of the NW basin. 
Meanwhile, light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the 
Caribbean. Northwest swell that have impacted Passages continue to
produce seas up to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean E of 68W. 
Otherwise, seas are 3 ft or less. 

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to 
NE Honduras by Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas 
will immediately follow the front across the NW Caribbean today 
and tonight. Winds and seas will diminish Fri across NW portions 
as the front reaches the the NE coast of Cuba to NE Honduras, then
weakens from Hispaniola to the Honduras- Nicaragua border on Sat.
High pressure building north of the region in the wake of the 
front will support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern 
Cuba and across the Windward Passage Fri night through Sat 
evening. Winds and seas will then diminish there Sat night. 
Moderate N swell is moving through the NE Caribbean Passages and 
adjacent Tropical Atlantic waters this morning and will gradually 
subside through early Fri. Strong trade winds and rough seas will 
pulse off the coast of Colombia and the southern coast of 
Hispaniola Sat and Sun as the high pressure settles NE of the 
Bahamas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in the Central Atlantic and the Significant Swell
event. 

In the western Atlantic off the Florida coast, a cold front
extends from 31N80W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Winds are
moderate to fresh along the entire Florida coast, including the
Florida Keys, to 75W. Seas in this area range 4 to 7 ft. Between
this system and the frontal system producing gale force winds in
the central Atlantic, a 1015 mb high pressure is near the Turks
and Caicos. Winds are light to gentle under this high and to the
1009 mb low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section.
Seas range 6 to 10 ft. 

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N24W to
31N37W. The latest ASCAT data depicted fresh to strong W to NW
winds behind the front with moderate to fresh W winds ahead of it.
This system is helping usher in the significant swell event
mentioned in the Special Features section. South of 26N, high
pressure extends across the eastern Atlantic. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail with 6 to 9 ft seas. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the broad low pressure SE of Bermuda 
centered near 26N59W will meander then weaken to a trough and move
slowly NE and east of 55W Fri night. Large northerly swell 
dominates the waters W of 60W and will gradually subside through 
early Fri. An associated dissipating frontal boundary extends from
31N65W to 26N54W to the central Lesser Antilles. An area of 
strong to gale- force S to SE winds, rough to very rough seas, and
scattered strong thunderstorms remains active to the east of the 
front, N of 20N. SE gales occurring N of 26N will move N of the 
area this evening, while the front gradually shifts to the east of
55W by Fri morning. Farther west, a cold front has moved off the 
northeast Florida coast. This front will reach from Bermuda to 
eastern Cuba by midday Fri, from 31N55W to the Mona Passage by Sat
morning, then move east of the area early Sun. Strong winds and 
rough seas will follow this front, then diminish from west to east
as high pressure build eastward along roughly 29N, and settle NE 
of the Bahamas Sun and Mon. 

$$
AReinhart