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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300602
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from the Cabo Verde
Islands to 10N25W and 04N26W, moving westward 20 knots. 
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong from 02N to 08N between 26W and 35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 11N37W 06N39W 01N49W 
from 13N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective 
precipitation: isolated moderate from 08N southward between 37W
and 50W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/62W, from 12N 
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. The wave is moving 
into the area of the Monsoon Trough. Convective precipitation: 
rainshowers are possible from 12N southward between 60W and 66W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 14N 
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective 
precipitation: earlier precipitation, that was taking place in
Colombia and Venezuela, has weakened. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near
15N17W, to 10N22W. The ITCZ is along 05N27W, 02N38W, to the
Equator along 50W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 03N to 05N between 15W and 20W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong within 60 nm of the coast of
South America between 52W and 58W. Isolated moderate elsewhere 
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend to the
Yucatan Peninsula. A stationary front is in Texas, from East
Texas, into south central Texas, beyond the Texas Big Bend.
A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center,
that is near 28N95W, to 22N96W. A semi-permanent trough is in the
SW corner of the area, from 24N91W to 18N95W. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 27N to 30N
between 91W and 93W, from 20N to 22N between 93W and 96W, and from
19N to 20N between the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and 93W.

A surface ridge passes through 26N74W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, to 32N89W in Mississippi.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM 
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N 
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KHQI, and KSPR.

IFR: KEHC.

MVFR: KGUL, KVQT, KGBK, KGRY, KATP, KEIR, KMDJ, KVOA, KMIS,
and KDLP. 

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE 
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: IFR in Conroe. MVFR in Jasper. LOUISIANA: heavy rain in
parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area. MVFR in parts of the
SE coastal plains. light rain has ended for the moment in many
parts of the coastal plains. MISSISSIPPI: light rain, and thunder
in some areas, from Natchez-to-Hattiesburg southward. ALABAMA:
rain and thunder from Pascagoula in Mississippi, to Mobile in
Alabama. FLORIDA: MVFR in Brooksville. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 22N68W cyclonic circulation
center, about 180 nm to the NE of Hispaniola, to 16N68W in the
Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 15N in the Caribbean Sea, to 23N in the 
Atlantic Ocean, between 58W and 73W. Rainshowers are possible from
15N southward between 60W and 70W. Precipitation around Cuba has 
been weakening with time.

The monsoon trough is along 09N74W 09N79W, beyond 08N84W in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 13N southward from 78W westward. 

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that 
ended at 30/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE 
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.92 in 
Guadeloupe. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for
visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: light rain, and thunder. MVFR.
ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: light rain
and thunder. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: moderate rain and thunder.
few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR. few cumulonimbus
clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow 
will span Hispaniola during the first 24 hours of the 48-hour
forecast period. Expect NW wind flow during the rest of the time.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that a ridge will cut
across Hispaniola during most of the first 24 hours or so of the 
overall 48-hour forecast period. Expect NE wind flow during the
rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an
inverted trough will affect the area during the first 6 hours or
so. Expect easterly wind flow during the rest of the 48-hour
forecast period. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 25N35W, to 18N36W, and to 10N42W.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

An upper level trough passes 32N44W to 25N51W, 25N60W, toward the
22N68W cyclonic circulation center. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent.

A surface ridge extends from 40N12W, to a 1027 mb high pressure 
center that is near 34N30W, through 32N37W, to a 1025 mb high 
pressure center that is near 28N52W, to 26N74W, and across Lake 
Okeechobee in south Florida.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT