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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 191207

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
526 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

A broad area of low pressure analyzed currently as a 997 mb low 
centered near 37N63W is forecast to strengthen during the next 24
hours while moving eastward. The associated cold front extends 
from the low center to 32N66W to 30N72W to the South Carolina 
coast near 33N79W. Near gale to gale force SW to W winds are
occurring generally N of 30N between the front and 65W. See 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ 
FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 
05N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 05N15W 
to 01N36W to the Equator near 41W. Scattered moderate convection 
is S of 07N between 27W-50W.


A middle to upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery over
much of the Gulf basin this morning with axis along 85W. To the 
west of the ridge axis...southwesterly flow aloft prevails between
the ridging and an approaching middle to upper level trough with 
axis currently over western Texas and NW Mexico. The troughing 
supports a weak area of low pressure across eastern Texas and a 
stationary front extending from near 30N94W S-SW to the coast of 
Mexico near Tampico. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered 
tstms are occurring across portions of the NW Gulf N of 23N W of 
92W...including interior portions of Louisiana and SE Texas. The 
front is expected to become diffuse through Friday as surface 
ridging remains anchored to the east across the Florida peninsula 
and Bahamas. The next cold front is forecast to emerge off the 
Texas and Louisiana coasts Saturday night late into Sunday. 

Tranquil conditions prevail across the basin this morning. Much 
of the quiet weather is due in large part to N-NW flow aloft... 
strong subsidence...and dry air as noted on water vapor imagery. 
Moderate to occasional fresh trades were depicted on recent 
scatterometer data...with slightly higher trades occurring within 
close proximity to the coast of Colombia. This overall synoptic 
pattern is expected to persist as high pressure will remain 
anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc through Saturday. The 
next significant cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean 
Sunday night late into Monday shifting winds northerly across the 
western Caribbean early next week.

Moderate NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal 
waters this morning. Winds will diminish slightly through the 
next 24-36 hours as the pressure gradient weakens and high 
pressure anchored to the N of the island across the SE Bahamas

A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 33N66W that supports the Special 
Features low pressure area and associated cold front. Aside from 
the gale force winds...scattered showers and tstms are occurring 
N of 28N between 60W-77W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW 
North Atlc waters are under the influence of a surface ridge 
anchored by a 1020 mb high centered across the NW Bahamas. 
Farther east...another middle to upper level trough axis extends 
from 30N45W SW to 14N60W and supports a stationary front analyzed
from 32N31W to 26N51W. Isolated showers are occurring within 90 
nm either side of the front. The weak front bridges between two 
high pressure a 1022 mb high centered near 32N35W and
the second a 1023 mb high centered near 33N21W.

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