Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 200002 AAA

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Updated Hurricane Information

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


At 20/0000 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located near 17.0N 64.2W or 
about 50 nm southeast of Saint Croix, moving west-northwest at 9 
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 909 mb. Maximum 
sustained winds are 150 kt with gusts to 180 kt, a Category 5. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the 
center. The tiny eye of Maria will approach St. Croix in the US 
Virgin Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday. 
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 20/0000 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 230 nm south-
southwest of Nantucket Massachusetts near 37.5N 71.2W, moving 
north-northeast at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure 
is 973 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 
kt. Convection associated with Jose is well north of the 
discussion area. The center of Jose is expected to remain well 
offshore and pass well to the east of the northeast U.S. coast 
through Thursday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave west of Africa extends from 19N21W to 07N25W, 
and is moving west at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a region of 
abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA TPW 
imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave 
as it interacts with the convergence zone is from 07N-13N 
between 21W-25W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis 
extending from 21N82W to 11N85W, moving west at 10-15 kt. CIRA 
TPW imagery indicates extensive dry air in the northern wave 
environment. Shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft support 
isolated convection south of 15N between 80W-84W.


The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near 
17N16W to 09N29W to 09N44W. Aside from the convection associated 
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within 
150 nm either side of the monsoon trough.



Weak surface ridging with light to gentle anticyclonic winds 
prevail in the basin around a 1017 mb high centered near 28N88W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of Campeche and west of 
the Yucatan peninsula are associated with the northern part of a 
tropical wave in EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf 
along with dry air subsidence will continue to support fair 
weather conditions through Thursday.


Category 5 major Hurricane Maria is moving across the northeast 
Caribbean waters, and will approach St. Croix in the US Virgin 
Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday. See the 
special features section for further details. Low level wind 
convergence east of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean is 
producing a large area of moderate to strong convection in the 
SW Caribbean from 10N-14N between 79W-82W. Expect the wave to 
continue moving west with convection mainly east-southeast of 
the wave axis. Scatterometer data shows mainly light to gentle 
trade winds west of 70W, with the remainder of the basin 
experiencing cyclonic winds associated with Hurricane Maria. 


Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are diminishing across the 
western past of the Dominican Republic. Weather conditions will 
deteriorate significantly across the island Wednesday from the 
outer rainbands of Hurricane Maria. The eye of Maria is forecast 
to move northwest, passing over or very close to the northern 
coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday with destructive winds. 


Please refer to Special Features section for more information on 
Hurricanes Maria and Jose. The remnant circulation of T.D. Lee 
is located near 17N45W and are expected to move northwest during 
the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 
within 200 nm east and northeast of the low center. A surface 
trough over the central Atlantic extends from 32N41W to 29N42W 
to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the 
trough north of 26N between 35W-40W. The remainder of the basin 
remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered 
north of the area.

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Sep-2017 00:03:38 UTC