Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 281717

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 18N47W to
09N48W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is in an
environment of low to moderate moisture as noted in TPW imagery.
The convection observed at this time is in the area were the wave
meets with the ITCZ mainly south of 11N. 

A Caribbean tropical wave is moving across central Hispaniola with
axis extending from 20N71W to 11N71W, moving westward 10 to 15
knots. Moderate moisture is noted in TPW imagery in the waves
environment. Scattered moderate convection is observed on the
northern portion of the wave north of 16N between 69W-72W. 


The Monsoon Trough extends from 14N25W to a 1011 mb low pressure
center near 12N35W to 10N40W. The ITCZ begins from that point and
continues to 10N58W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical wave described above, isolated showers are observed
within 100 nm on either side of the Monsoon Trough while scattered
moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ between 41W-52W.



An upper-level low is developing over the northwest Gulf near
26N93W with its trough extending across the western half of the
basin. Cloudiness and isolated showers are prevailing across the
central and eastern Gulf mainly east of 92W. An area of scattered
light to moderate convection is observed over the Bay of Campeche
within 50 nm off the coast of east Mexico south of 23N. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the west
Gulf waters while moderate to fresh northeasterly winds prevail
east of 90W. A similar weather pattern will prevail through the
next 24 hours.


A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft is
supporting scattered moderate convection across the northwestern
portion of the basin mainly west of 74W, with strongest activity
affecting Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A 1009 mb surface
low is near 17N84W with its trough extending from 20N84W to the
low to 13N82W. To the east, a shear line extends from 18N76W to
19N73W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly
winds north of the shear line while gentle to moderate trades
prevail elsewhere. Expect through the next 24 hours for the shear
line and tropical wave to dissipate. The upper-level ridge will
continue prevailing across the basin.


A tropical wave is moving across the island. Please refer to the
section above for details. Upper-level anticyclonic wind flow
prevails across the island. Fair weather prevails at this time but
scattered moderate convection is expected to reach the island in
the afternoon/evening hours. Expect for a similar weather pattern
to prevail through the next 24 hours.


A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. A surface ridge prevails
across the western Atlantic. To the east, a shear line extends
from 20N73W to 23N70W while a weakening stationary front extends
from that point to 31N48W. Fresh northeasterly winds are depicted
in scatterometer data to the north and west of the shear line
while gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere. A
surface trough extends from 21N59W to 18N60W with isolated
showers. Across the far east Atlantic, a 1006 mb surface low
extends a trough from 32N21W to 28N25W. The shear line is
expected to dissipate within the next 24 hours. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Oct-2016 17:18:18 UTC