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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 251650

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

Tropical wave extends from 06N20W to 12N22w moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 15W-27W and
an E to W stretched 850 mb relative vorticity maximum along
09N/10N in the vicinity of the wave. Scattered moderate convection
is from 05N-09N between 18W-23W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N69W to 13N68W moving W at 15 kt. The
wave is noted on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge
anchored NE of Puerto Rico near 19N63W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-14N between 64W-71W. This convection is
likely enhanced due to an upper level trough axis extending over
the Caribbean Sea from 15N70W to 13N80W.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
07N20W to 07N32W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 07N32W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-09N between 11W-20W...and from 06N-09N between 52W-58W.


An upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery centered over
the SW Gulf waters near 21N95W with axis extending northward
along 93W to over the Arklatex region. W of the upper level ridge
axis...moisture is drawn north on S-SW flow aloft. The presence
of a surface trough extending across the far SW Gulf from 19N95W
to 23N98W is providing focus for scattered showers and tstms W of
a line from 29N96W to 19N92W. E of the upper level ridge axis...
relatively dry and stable conditions prevail aloft...further
supporting a 1020 mb high centered near 28N88W. An upper level
trough remains NE of the basin over the SE CONUS seaboard...
however weak frontal troughing extends across Florida...the SE
Gulf waters and portions of the Yucatan peninsula supporting two
surface analyzed across northern Florida...and the
other analyzed from 24N85W to 19N88W. Isolated showers and tstms
are occurring across the SE Gulf S of 27N between 81W-88W.
Otherwise...gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are expected
through Tuesday as the ridge axis remains anchored along 28N/29N.

An upper level low is centered N of Puerto Rico near 20N67W and
extends an axis S-SW to 15N70W then W-SW to 13N79W. North and west
of this axis...water vapor imagery indicates dry and stable
conditions aloft. One exception is an area of moisture on the
eastern periphery of an inverted upper level trough over the NW
Caribbean between 83W-87W. Isolated showers and tstms are noted on
satellite imagery N of 16N between 80W-85W. the
east and south of the upper level trough axis...southwesterly
winds aloft prevail generally E of 70W. This area of lift along
with the presence of a tropical wave along 68W across the ABC
Islands is generating scattered showers and tstms E of a line from
the US/UK Virgin Islands near 18N65W to 12N72W. South of the upper
level trough axis over western portions of the basin...scattered
showers and tstms are occurring S of 13N between 72W-85W...
including inland portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. In
addition...the close proximity of the Monsoon Trough along 09N/10N
is enhancing the ongoing convection this afternoon. Finally...
trades remain mostly moderate to fresh with the exception of fresh
to occasionally strong trades between 68W-80W due to a
strengthened pressure gradient across the region.

Clear skies prevail across the island this afternoon due to dry
northerly flow aloft on the western periphery of an upper level
low centered N of Puerto Rico near 20N67W. Most precipitation
associated with the upper level low is occurring across the
eastern Caribbean. Overall stability is expected to prevail this
afternoon and overnight into Sunday.

An upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near
27N57W that extends troughing SW to another upper level low
centered N of Puerto Rico near 20N67W. The northern upper level
feature supports a surface trough analyzed from 25N53W to 30N58W
with isolated showers occurring within 150 nm either side of the
boundary. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge axis extending from 32N61W to the
NW Bahamas and southern Florida peninsula. The ridging is expected
to hold stationary through Sunday morning as a weak frontal
boundary moves off the SE CONUS and across the NW waters then
weakens through Sunday night late. Farther east...the remainder of
the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a broad
surface ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high centered N-NW of the
Azores near 43N32W. A strengthened pressure gradient is evident on
earlier scatterometer data offshore of NW Africa and in the
vicinity of the Canary Islands generating fresh to strong N-NE
winds generally N of 23N E of 22W.

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