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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061041
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...                                      
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N 
BETWEEN 74W-77W UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED 
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE 
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE 
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 
6N-14N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN 
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-53W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER 
ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 61W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA 
MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 88W S OF 19N TO 
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N21W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 7N39W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N51W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
OF LINE FROM 7N17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE SIERRA LEONE 
AND GUINEA BORDER AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 30W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N 
BETWEEN 54W-47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING 
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW 
NEAR 24N87W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. 
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 90W. THE DIURNAL 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 93W FROM 21N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 95W. 
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST 
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. 
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS 
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA 
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH THU. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN 
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 84W TO 
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S 
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL 
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A 
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
LIMITING MOST SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY 
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM 
OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT 
STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW 
COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS 
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE 
BASIN TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN 
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AND 
OUT OF THE W CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH 
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE S COAST OF 
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST 
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS 
KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. 
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND THIS 
EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL 
BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND 
FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES 
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE AND WED. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS 
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 75W. LARGE UPPER 
LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND DIPS S OVER THE NE 
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF 
THE FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 32N49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY 
AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 33N40W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH 
NEAR 32N62W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR 
SAHARAN DUST REMAINS COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N 
TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW


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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Jul-2015 10:42:06 UTC