AXNT20 KNHC 280550
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Gaston was upgraded to hurricane at 28/0300 UTC.
This is the second time Gaston has increased to hurricane.
Hurricane Gaston is centered near 29.6N 54.2W at 28/0300 UTC or
about 570 nm east-southeast of Bermuda moving northwest at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 75/90 nm of a line from
29N56W to 31N52W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.
A 1007 mb low pressure is along the coast of Cuba near 23N79W
with a surface trough extending from 27N77W through the low then
across cuba to 21N83W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from the Bahamas to Cuba between 75W-80W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 19N-26N
between 71W-80W. This system has a medium chance of of tropical
development over the next 48 hours. Upper-level winds are not
conducive for significant development today while this system
moves westward through the Straits of Florida. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive when
the low moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
Cuban Meteorological Service indicate that 3 to 5 inches of rain
have already fallen in portions of the island. Regardless of
development, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely
over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Cuba
through tonight. These winds and rains will spread into parts of
southern Florida and the Florida Keys later today.
Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 17N28W
to 10N31W moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is
embedded within an area of dry stable air, thus no associated
showers or convection.
Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 85W south of
20N to inland over Central America moving west 10 to 15 over
past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within an area of deep moisture.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 18N to
inland over Central America between 83W-86W.
The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N16W and continues along 11N23W 10N30W 8N34W to
8N40W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N47W into South
America near 2N50W. Small clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are from 5N-9N between 24W-39W and
from 7N-10N between 45W-56W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper low is centered over the northwest Gulf near 28N94W
with an upper trough covering the west Gulf supporting a surface
trough that extends from the Texas coast near 29N95W along
27N94W to 24N88W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are inland and within 60 nm along the coast of west Louisiana
and east Texas between 92W-95W. An upper ridge is anchored along
the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula and extends a ridge axis
north through a second upper high 26N86W continuing north over
the northeast Gulf coast. Isolated showers and possible
thunderstorms dot the east Gulf east of 88W. The remainder of
the west Gulf is under clear skies again tonight. The low
between Cuba and the Bahamas in the Special Features is expected
to drift into the southeast Gulf Sunday night then reach the
central Gulf Tuesday.
An upper low is centered in the west Caribbean 18N82W covering
the area north of 15N west of 77W. The upper low over the
south/central Atlantic covers the remainder of the Caribbean.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 15N to
over Hispaniola between 68W-75W and from 13N-16N between 64W-
68W. The activity over Cuba is associated with the low in the
Special Features and the activity over the west Caribbean is
associated with the tropical wave. Please sections above.
Tropical wave will move out of the Caribbean Monday. Fresh to
strong trade winds will develop over the south/central Caribbean
early next week.
Currently scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
across the island tonight. The upper low over the south/central
Atlantic will shift west toward Hispaniola through Tuesday.
Lingering moisture will continue to give the island the
possibility of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
through early Tuesday.
An upper low is centered near 31N74W covering the west Atlantic
north of 25N west of 70W. Isolated showers are from 26N-30N
between 71W-78W. A weak 1011 mb low is centered west-southwest
of Bermuda near 31N67W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm over
the northwest quadrant. A cutoff upper low is in the south/
central Atlantic near 22N60W covering the east Caribbean and
supporting a surface trough that extends from 24N59W along
20N61W to over the Leeward Islands near 17N62W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90/120 nm of a
line from 23N59W 20N63W to 26N63W. The remainder of the east
Atlantic east of Hurricane Gaston is dominated by a weak surface
ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high north of the Azores. The low
west-southwest of Bermuda will drift west-northwest toward the
Carolinas this weekend. The low in the Special Features will
move through the Straits of Florida through Sunday.
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