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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221819 AAA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CORRECTED FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA
FOR THE SPECIAL FEATURE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N65W... 
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A 
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N65W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 21N 
BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N 
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS... AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
LOW CENTER HAS INCREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. DATA FROM 
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT 
THE CIRCULATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WHEN THE LOW CENTER MOVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 
BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED 
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND ACROSS  
SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS 
TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. PEOPLE WHO ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SITUATION. 
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE 
REQUIRED WITH SHORT NOTICE. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 2.08 IN ST. 
THOMAS...1.01 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO... 
0.28 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.08 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
19N65W. WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET WITHIN 
60 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT WINDS 
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 
NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE REMAINDER 
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. 
EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 
FEET IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 
21N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 27N 
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 
28W AND 33W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL 
NEAR 15N17W...TO 10N30W AND 7N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N39W 
TO 7N50W AND 8N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG 
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF 
AFRICA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N20W 9N23W 8N35W 8N40W 
8N46W 7N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 50W 
WESTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 24N102W IN MEXICO. PART OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS 
MOVING AROUND THE 24N102W CENTER COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL 
WATERS OF MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N. THE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE U.S.A.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG 
THE MEXICO COAST...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N71W... 
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 28N89W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION 
ABOUT THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS 
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS 
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN 
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN 
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW...FROM THE CURRENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... 
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR 
FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA 
AT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST NORTHEAST TO 
EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB 
SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS 
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM AN 
INVERTED TROUGH...COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE 
NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR 
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 
KNHC...WERE 2.08 IN ST. THOMAS...1.01 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN 
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO... 0.28 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.08 IN MONTEGO 
BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA  
BEYOND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...EARLIER SCATTERED STRONG THAT WAS TO THE SOUTH 
OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE 
SAME AREA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA 
HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT 
THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS 
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS 
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN 
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN 
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT 
FIRST EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL BE 
FOLLOWED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA. 
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL 
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                            

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 18N51W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE CENTER. 

AN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N63W. A 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 26N63W CENTER TO 21N61W...AND INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ISOLATED MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 33N21W...TO A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 32N33W...TO 30N50W...28N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL 
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT 
THE WIND AND SEA HEIGHTS FORECAST THAT IS RELATED TO THE 1009 MB 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Aug-2014 18:19:52 UTC