Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 292355
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
GALE WARNING...                                                 
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND END THU 
AFTERNOON FOR THE AREA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 74W-78W IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A STRONG 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 29W FROM 8N-
17N MOVING W-SW 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A  
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE 
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS 
WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 44W 
FROM 9N-16N MOVING W-SW NEAR 30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. THE 
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A PLUMB OF 
AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS MOVING INTO THE E 
CARIBBEAN ALONG 61W FROM 9N-18N IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP  
MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 84W S OF 20N TO 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL 
PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE 
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST 
LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE ACTIVITY W OF THE WAVE 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W ALONG 16N20W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 
12N23W THEN TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N27W 
THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 10N30W ALONG 9N34W TO 10N39W 
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL 
WAVE NEAR 11N43W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 11N46W TO E OF 
THE NEXT WAVE NEAR 11N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1010 MB LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER 
OVER THE S QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 12N BETWEEN 22W-28W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG 
THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 11N-14N. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E 
CONUS INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. A 1013 MB LOW IS IN THE W 
ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN VERO 
BEACH AND FORT MYERS THEN TO 26N86W IN THE GULF WATERS. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-28N E OF 
88W TO OVER FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE MOVING S INTO THE NE GULF N OF LINE FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA 
TO 29N86W TO THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR SLIDELL. A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N92W TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE 
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG 
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CUBA W OF 81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N86W TO 
28N92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS 
EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT S 
ON FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE SW ATLC ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA THEN W ALONG 17N80W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND 
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CUBA W OF 81W AND FROM 18N-20N 
BETWEEN 84W-87W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA  
TO THE ABC ISLANDS. AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO AND S HAITI. THE 
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THE CARIBBEAN IS COVERED A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR 
SAHARAN DUST LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN 
STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRI INCREASING TO GALE 
FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA THU. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WILL 
MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN 
FRI NIGHT. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER S 
HAITI THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW ATLC WILL KEEP AN 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH FRI. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE 
AGAIN THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER DAYTIME 
HEATING COULD STILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS HOURS 
THROUGH THU WITH AN INCREASE CHANCE OF OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER 
THE FAR W ATLC W OF 76W. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
31N77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER FLORIDA INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR VERO BEACH. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 63W-73W ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SW ATLC NEAR 
21N68W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 65W-69W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 350 NM SW OF THE AZORES WITH A 
NARROWING RIDGE AXIS S OF THE W ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM AND EXTENDS 
THROUGH 32N39W ALONG 27N60W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE W ATLC 1013 MB LOW AND 
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA BY THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER THE ATLC SHIFTING N AND 
STRENGTHENING BY FRI. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Jul-2015 23:55:09 UTC