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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
105 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... 

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF 
94W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N83W TO 24N93W 
TO 18N94W. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE 
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE. PLEASE 
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND 
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N11W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 01S20W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL 
NEAR 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...      

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO 
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT 
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND GREAT 
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE GEORGIA 
COAST SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF 
NEAR 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE 
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES 
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 
CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY MORNING AND 
THEN WILL START TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT 
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...    

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE 
AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT 
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND 
SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. TRADE WINDS 
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE 
DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL 
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE 
CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS 
TROUGHINESS ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT 
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 21W AND 
42W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF 
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC 
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Friday, 06-Mar-2015 05:59:28 UTC