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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280003
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 28/0000 UTC...HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED NEAR 33.3N 
70.7W OR ABOUT 305 NM WNW OF BERMUDA...MOVING NE AT 15 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 68W-74W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 31N BETWEEN 60W-73W. SEE 
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS WEST OF THE 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 21N25W TO 10N26W...ENDING ON A 
1011 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED AT 10N26W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 
15 KT. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS MINIMAL WITHIN THIS WAVE AS 
SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ARE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 22N37W TO 11N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND 
DUST ARE ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...THEREFORE 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 140 NM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N56W TO 10N57W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE S OF 17N WHICH ALONG WITH 
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 20N72W TO 12N71W...MOVING WEST AT 20-25 KT. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE 
SOUTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION REMAINS S OF 16N AND E OF 72W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W 
AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N25W TO 11N40W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE WEST 
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N-16N BETWEEN 16W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF BEING SUPPORTED 
BY A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1011 MB 
LOW IS BEING ANALYZED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W FROM WHICH A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SE TO END IN ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL NEAR 23N87W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 
TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF 
THIS AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH AND EAST 
OF THE LOW IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N-30N BETWEEN 91W-96W AFFECTING 
COASTAL SW LOUISIANA...S TEXAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO PRESENT N OF THE LOW 
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...MAINLY FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 86W-
90W. AT UPPER-LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PERSISTS 
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH CENTER NEAR 24N97W.  WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS AREA AND FAIR 
WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF EXCEPT NEAR THE LOWS PREVIOUSLY 
DISCUSSED. E-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE E OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH WHILE N-NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE SW INTO NE MEXICO BY THU MORNING WHILE THE LOW IN THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...SUPPORTING AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 10N73W. A 
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH CONNECT TO THIS LOW AND 
ENHANCE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 12N 
BETWEEN 68W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
PREVAILS ACROSS AREAS OF JAMAICA AND CUBA...AS WELL AS THE 
ADJACENT WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ON 
THE EASTERN BASIN GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE 
E CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 72W. THE PASSAGE 
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS 
AREA SUPPORT TRADES OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
BASIN. SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 5-15 KT DOMINATES 
ELSEWHERE. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS IN 
THE E-SE PORTION OF THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING TO HAITI. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE IS SLIGHTLY 
ENHANCING THE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A 
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE ISLAND BY THU MORNING. 
THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WHICH IS  
FORECAST TO PRODUCE RAINSHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
ISLAND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS...ITS 
RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH ISOLATED 
CONVECTION N OF 25N BETWEEN 68W-73W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CRISTOBAL. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHILE 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS CUBA 
AFFECTING THEIR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...BESIDES THE 
TROPICAL WAVES...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 30N54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Aug-2014 00:04:10 UTC