Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011036
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ACROSS THE 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 23W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. METEOSAT 
ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN 
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. 
HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A 
DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 
26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 
53W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY 
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF 
IT. THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST 
COVER THE ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W... 
MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP 
MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 16N. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 
14N16W TO 13N30W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N35W SW TO 08N48W. THE 
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N48W AND CONTINUES TO COASTAL GUYANA NEAR 
06N58W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W AND FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 40W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE 
CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A 1011 MB LOW IS 
ANALYZED NEAR 29N86W ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING 
FROM 30N85W TO THE LOW TO 28N90W TO 29N95W. A DIFFLUENT WIND 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING 
GENERATED BY THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE SUPPORT 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF 95W. OVER 
THE W BASIN...TWO 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS PREVAILS...ONE 
NEAR 26N95W...THE SECOND NEAR 23N94W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE 
RIDGING DOMINATES THE SE GULF WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
OBSERVED. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE 
BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE FROM THE SW RANGING 
FROM 15 KT TO 20 KT. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE N GULF THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK 
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

AN UPPER-LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW 
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN 
WESTERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING ANALYZED OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. SEE TROPICAL 
WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. EVEN THAT MODERATE MOISTURE 
IS OBSERVED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE 
CARIBBEAN...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION 
SUPPORT STABLE CONDITIONS. NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. TRADES OF 15 
KT ARE W OF 76W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL 
AMERICA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE 
CARIBBEAN SUN. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS 
ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...NO CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER 
TODAY AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST START TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
ISLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN 
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH 
SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS. 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION AND A DIFFLUENT 
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND 
TSTMS N OF 20N W OF 71W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES 
INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Aug-2015 10:36:35 UTC