AXNT20 KNHC 301035
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A strengthened pressure gradient is expected to materialize across
the Gulf of Venezuela by 01/0000 UTC and generate near gale to
gale force NE winds. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.
Tropical wave extends from 06N28W to 13N32W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 25W-34W
and remains embedded within Saharan dust north of the Monsoon
Trough region. As a result...scattered moderate convection is
confined within 150 nm either side of a line from 08N23W to
Tropical wave extends from 06N54W to 16N58W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 52W-60W.
No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this
Tropical wave extends from 05N71W to 15N71W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave continues moving on the southern periphery of a SW North
Atlc mid-level ridge anchored near 30N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is across Venezuela and portions of northern Colombia
from 02N-10N between 64W-75W.
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to
09N20W to 05N30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 05N30W to 04N35W to 10N47W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm either side of the axis between 18W-
39W...and from 09N-13N between 43W-51W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over much of the eastern CONUS with a broad base dipping
to 30N. The west-southwesterly flow aloft and maximum diffluence
south of the troughing is supporting weak surface troughing
extending from the Florida panhandle to coastal Louisiana and
across the NW Gulf waters to the Texas coast near Corpus Christi
this morning. Given the favorable lifting dynamics aloft and
surface boundary in place...widely scattered showers are
occurring generally N of a line from the Florida Big Bend region
near 30N84W to 26N90W to 27N95W. Otherwise...a weak surface ridge
axis extends across the southern Florida peninsula to the SW Gulf
with generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds
expected through Thursday as ridge axis remains nearly stationary.
The frontal troughing to the north will also remain stationary
through the remainder of the week.
An upper level ridging extends over the western Caribbean W of
78W. This feature is providing an diffluent environment aloft
supporting widely scattered showers and tstms generally S of 17N
between 81W-89W...including inland portions of Central America.
The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a very
broad troughing aloft as an upper level low is centered over the
Turks and Caicos Islands near 22N71W supporting a few isolated
showers across Hispaniola this morning. In addition...a tropical
wave along 71W is producing isolated showers across the central
Caribbean in the vicinity of 15N70W. The wave is expected to move
west with increased precipitation probabilities during the next
few days for the south-central and southwestern waters of the
basin. Finally...while moderate to fresh trades prevail across
much of the basin...fresh to strong trades persist S of 17N
between 64W- 80W due to a strengthened pressure gradient across
the central Caribbean. Little change is expected during the next
24 to 36 hours.
Currently...isolated showers continue this morning. Southwesterly
flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery as an upper level low
is centered north of the island near 22N71W. This environment
along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote
isolated showers and tstms again later today during the late
afternoon and early evening hours.
Weak frontal troughing is analyzed across the SE CONUS and
portions of the far NW Atlc discussion waters providing focus for
isolated showers and tstms generally W of a line from 32N73W to
27N80W. Surface ridging is expected to build west during the next
12 to 24 hours with most of the convective shower activity moving
north of the area. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored on a 1035 mb high centered
NW of the Azores near 41N38W.
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