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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271047
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W 
TO 26N92W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THE FRONT 
IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO 
MATERIALIZE BY 27/1200 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WATERS 
S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 
07N21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N 
BETWEEN 04W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO EASTERN 
TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW 
CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO 26N92W TO THE EAST 
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. WITH THE SURFACE FORCING IN PLACE 
AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING ACROSS THE 
BASIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING 
ACROSS A 300 NM WIDE SWATH ON BOTH SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 29N83W TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF 
MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO 
MODERATE S-SW WINDS WERE NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND FRESH 
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT. THESE 
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE 
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY 
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN 
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA N-NW TO EASTERN CUBA 
NEAR 21N76W. MUCH OF THE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE BASIN WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AT 
THE SURFACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE STABLE CONDITIONS 
WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS AN 
OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO MODERATE TO 
OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES THIS MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS 
MORNING...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO 
PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL 
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                            
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION S-SW TO EASTERN TEXAS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS 
TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO...SOUTHERLY FLOW OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N 
OF 28N W OF 70W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
37N40W TO A BASE NEAR 22N51W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED 
FROM 32N38W TO 24N45W TO 21N58W AND BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE W-NW 
TO 27N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 
NM EAST AND 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT E OF 46W...WITH LINGERING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
BOUNDARY W OF 46W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N54W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 40W-75W. 
FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N18W IS PROVIDING 
FAIR WEATHER GENERALLY E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Mar-2015 10:47:17 UTC