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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230540
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N25W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 17N27W TO 
12N27W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A SLOT OF WARM DRY AIR W OF THE LOW 
CENTER IS DEPICTED IN THE SSMI TPW AND THE METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY. 
SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING IN THE 
LACK OF CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 18N43W TO 09N46W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. DRY AND STABLE 
SAHARAN AIR IS ALSO IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...LIMITING 
THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH 
CUTS THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 44W-47W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE IN THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N67W TO 11N67W...MOVING W 
AT 10 KT. DEEP LAYER MODERATE MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE... 
WHICH ALONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE HELPS TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 17N 
BETWEEN 64W-69W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
23N83W TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W 
AT 10 KT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IS LIMITING THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE 
AXIS...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED 
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND EXTENDING TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N20W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 
17N27W TO 12N31W TO 10N45W 08N48W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION 
OCCURRING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS ALONG 12N BETWEEN 33W-41W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                          

A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN US EXTENDS ITS BASE 
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS 
TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...A STATIONARY 
FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA CONNECTING TO A 1012 MB 
LOW NEAR 28N85W TO 26N90W AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SE US 
EXTENDING ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS TO LOUISIANA. THE COLD FRONT 
IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY ONE SOMETIME TODAY. SE 
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...RIDGING IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW 
WHICH ALONG THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF THE 
STATIONARY FRONT S OF 26N...E OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS...THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL 
FLORIDA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IMPACTING THE CARIBBEAN...FOR MORE 
INFORMATION ABOUT THESE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER- 
LEVEL LOW WITH CENTER NEAR 18N82W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 81W-83W. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF CUBA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 11N ENHANCED BY THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE ON THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...                                             

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NE 
HISPANIOLA AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. AN INCREASE IN 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE 
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN US THAT SUPPORTS A 
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N78W TO 31N81W AND THEN ACROSS 
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL 
HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH CENTER NEAR 
31N64W NEAR THE END OF A COLD FRONT. THESE SYSTEMS ARE KEEPING A 
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THEM GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC 
WATERS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 77W-80W. THERE IS ALSO ISOLATED 
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH FROM 33N-36N 
BETWEEN 60W-66W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 
24N55W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-31N 
BETWEEN 46W-58W. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 31N31W TO 
27N43W HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS 
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 23-Sep-2014 05:40:19 UTC