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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241108
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
708 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, crossing 
the Equator along 23W, to 03S30W, to 04S38W near the coast of 
Brazil. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 05N southward between the Prime Meridian and the coast
of Brazil. 

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING 
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
also is present in water vapor imagery, in the entire area. An
upper level ridge passes through East Texas to interior sections 
of south central Mexico.

A deep layer trough is in the western Atlantic Ocean, passing
through Bermuda, to 27N71W, across the SE Bahamas and SE Cuba, 
into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea near 19N80W, to interior
sections of Nicaragua. A cold front passes through 32N53W to 
25N73W. The front is stationary from 25N73W to 24N80W and 26N82W.
The stationary front is dissipating from 26N82W to 28N85W and to
SE Louisiana. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 
23N to 26N between 71W and 83W in the Straits of Florida. Other 
rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through
32N56W 20N67W. 

A surface trough is along 92W from 23N southward, in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL 
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N 
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none. 

MVFR: KBBF, KHHV, KATP, KIKT, KVOA, and KMIS. 

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in the Lower Valley, and from Hebbronville
northeastward into the middle Texas Gulf coastal plains, not
including Rockport, but including Victoria, at KEFD in the Houston
metropolitan area, and in Beaumont/Port Arthur. LOUISIANA: MVFR
in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area, in Baton Rouge,
Slidell, Galliano, and Port Fourchon. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR from the 
Natchez-to-Hattiesburg line southward. ALABAMA: MVFR between
Mississippi and Florida. FLORIDA: MVFR in the westernmost part of
the Florida Panhandle. light rain in Milton. MVFR in Apalachicola.
LIFR in Perry. light rain in Marathon Key.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the line that runs 
from the Windward Passage to NE coastal Nicaragua. Upper level 
cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the 
same Windward Passage-to-NE Nicaragua line.

Rainshowers are possible to the N of 16N between 60W and the
Windward Passage, and from Jamaica southward from 77W westward. 
This precipitation is possible in scattered to broken low level 
clouds. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
precipitation are to the east of the line that runs from the
southern coast of Haiti, to 15N77W, and to the coast of Panama
along 77W.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 
24/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.01 in 
Guadeloupe, and a trace in Curacao. 

...HISPANIOLA...

SW wind flow at all levels is moving across the island.
Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.few 
cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: light
rain. MVFR. ceiling 1200 feet. Puerto Plata: light rain. MVFR. 
ceiling 1800 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecasts, for 250 mb and for 500 mb, show that SW 
wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A 
trough will remain to the west of Hispaniola during the next 48 
hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind 
flow with a trough will cover the area for the first 30 hours. 
Expect SW wind flow during the rest of the 48-hour forecast 
period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough remains, from the warm front scenario of 24 
hours ago, now along 29N57W 26N60W 20N66W, into the Mona Passage.
Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds 
and possible rainshowers are within 240 nm on either side of 
32N50W 24N60W, and from 20N to 24N between 60W and 74W.

An upper level trough passes through Morocco, across the Canary
Islands, to a 23N24W cyclonic circulation center, to 10N33W. No 
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite
imagery.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east, and to the west and
northwest of the 32N53W-to-25N73W cold front. A surface ridge 
passes through 32N38W 27N46W 24N53W to 17N57W on the eastern side
of the cold front. A 1036 mb high pressure center is near 37N74W.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT