Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 021752

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.



Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds expected for the areas of IRVING,
MADEIRA, and METEOR. The outlook, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 03/1200 UTC, consists of a threat
of SW near gale or gale in AGADIR.


The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the coast near 08N13W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N31W to 05N49W. A surface
trough is from 12N51W 08N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed 04N-17N between 28W-50W. 



A frontal system extends across the south and east portions of
the basin analyzed as a weakening stationary front from 22N95W to
24N88W to 24N83W then as a cold front from that point to 26N80W.
Isolated showers are observed along the cold front affecting South
Florida and the Keys. An area of scattered moderate convection is
developing across the northwest Gulf mainly north of 27N and west
of 91W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered over the
southeast CONUS near 34N86W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate easterly winds across the basin. Expect for the front to
become stationary then weakening by early Friday. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front and across the whole basin.
Easterly winds will increase across the NW Gulf late on Friday as
an area of low pressure develops across extreme southern Texas and
northern Mexico. Its associated frontal boundary will extends
across the Texas coastline this weekend.


An upper-level ridge extends across the central Caribbean. Water
vapor imagery depicts dry and stable air prevailing over much of
the basin. At the surface, a trough extends 18N69W to 12N70W with
isolated showers. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades near the trough between 65W-75W while gentle to moderate
trades prevail elsewhere. Expect for a frontal boundary to
approach the western Caribbean during the next 24 hours with
isolated showers.


A surface trough extends to the southeast of the island providing
focus for possible isolated showers this afternoon. A dry and
stable airmass prevails across the central Caribbean providing
mostly fair conditions across the island which are expected to
persist through the next 24 hours.


A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 25N80W to
31N73W with isolated showers. To the east, a surface trough
extends to the north of the Virgin Islands from 24N63W to 18N65W.
A surface ridge extends across most of the basin anchored by a
1021 mb high centered 27N52W. A cold front extends across the
eastern Atlantic from 31N40W to 28N33W to 31N27W. To the east of
it, a weakening cold front extends from 26N25W to 31N19W. Gale
force winds are depicted in scatterometer data near these fronts.
Please refer to the section above for more information. A similar
weather pattern will continue through the next 24 hours.

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Dec-2016 17:53:27 UTC