000
AXNT20 KNHC 232324
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: 
An occluded 1007 mb low at the central Atlantic currently near
27N34W will slowly drift southwestward through Thu. Large swell
and wind waves produced by strong to near-gale northerly winds
north and northwest of the low center continue to generate 12 to
14 ft seas north of 25N between 33W and 40W. This area should
gradually shrink in coverage through Thu as the low weakens.
Scattered showers are present near and up to 50 nm northeast of
the low center. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Strong Thunderstorms With Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola:
A persistent surface trough extending southwestward from 25N64W 
to near the Mona Passage is providing moist southerly flow across
Hispaniola. Together with a pronounced mid to upper-level trough
in the vicinity, strong thunderstorms are likely during the
afternoon and early evening hours over and near Hispaniola on Wed
and Thu. These thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy 
downpours, increasing the chance for flash flooding, especially 
in hilly terrains and low-lying areas. Please refer to the local 
weather service offices for more details on this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of 
Guinea and Sierra Leone, then extends southwestward to 02N19W. 
An ITCZ continues from 02N19W to beyond 00S26W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted near both features from the Equator 
to 05N between 16W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the south-central Gulf. Otherwise, a 
modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from northern Florida 
to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and
seas at 3 to 5 ft are seen near the Yucatan Peninsula and at the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 2
to 4 ft seas are evident across the western Gulf, including the
western Bay of Campeche. Moderate wit locally fresh ENE to E winds
and seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted at the Florida Straits. Mainly
gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the northern Gulf is 
supporting mainly gentle to moderate E winds in the northeastern 
half of the Gulf, and moderate to fresh SE winds in the
southwestern half of the Gulf through Thu. The pressure gradient 
will tighten over the Gulf starting on Fri, expect E to SE winds 
to become fresh to strong across the entire Gulf through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section about strong
thunderstorms and potential heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.

A 1010 mb low is near the coast of northwestern Colombia, 
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over 
eastern Panama and nearby waters. Late afternoon heating is
triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms over Jamaica and
nearby waters. Otherwise, a trade-wind pattern continues across
much of the basin. Fresh with locally strong NE to ENE winds and
seas of 4 to 5 ft are found at the south-central basin and near
the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5
ft seas dominate the rest of the southern basin, including the ABC
Islands. Light to gentle winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft are present
south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and near the Cayman Islands.
Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, a late season cold front passing over the 
Bahamas is reducing the north-to-south pressure gradient and 
forcing only gentle to moderate trades over the Caribbean through 
tonight. As high pressure builds in behind the front, the trades 
will strengthen to between fresh and locally strong just north of
Colombia, through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba 
Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, further building of the high starting
on Fri will also force fresh to strong trades in the Gulf of 
Honduras and just south of Hispaniola through the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about Significant Swell
in the Central Atlantic.

A cold front curves southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N65W
and the central Bahamas to the Great Bahama Bank. Widely scattered
showers are seen up to 100 nm northwest of this feature. A
persistent surface trough runs from 25N64W to near the Mona 
Passage. Aided by a pronounced mid to upper-level trough in the
vicinity, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 22N to
27N between 57W and 65W. A dissipating cold front stretches
south-southwestward from well south of the Azores across 31N28W to
21N29W, then continues as a surface trough to 14N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is flaring up near the cold front north of 25N
between 25W and 28W.

Other than the 1007 mb low mentioned in the Special Features
section, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE winds with 6 to 11 ft seas 
are found north of 20N between 33W and 50W. To the west, gentle to
moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft
are evident north of 20N between 50W and the Florida-Georgia
coast. For the eastern Atlantic north of 20N between 20W and 33W,
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted.
Near the Canary Islands, mostly moderate NNE winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and
20W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands. gentle to moderate N to NE winds
and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present from 05N to 20N between the
central Africa coast and 35W. For tropical Atlantic from 05N to
20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from 
31N61W to the southeast Bahamas by Wed morning, becoming 
stationary on Thu and Fri while transitioning to a trough. Fresh 
to strong winds on either side of the front north of 30N will 
diminish tonight, leaving the area with quiescent conditions 
through Fri morning. Looking ahead, a new cold front will merge 
with the trough and progress eastward, reaching 31N57W to eastern 
Cuba on Sat morning, and then 25N55W to Hispaniola on Sun morning.
A building Bermuda High should cause widespread fresh to strong N
to E winds west of the front from Fri night through Sun night.

$$

Chan