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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251738
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 
05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
05N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N 
BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                           
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF 
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD OVER LOUISIANA 
NEAR 31N92W. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURE IS PRESENT 
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS OR PORTIONS OF COASTAL TEXAS...A 
BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE VALUES EXISTS ACROSS THE NW AND 
WEST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE OVER 
LOUISIANA ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
N OF 28N BETWEEN 91W-97W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS 
AND LOUISIANA. THIS MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
ROUNDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N80W. SOUTHERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS AN AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL 
INTRODUCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS 
AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY MONDAY AND QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY 
LATE MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH A 
SECONDARY FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST EARLY TUESDAY. 
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS SECONDARY 
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY 
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N80W WITH THE BASIN E OF 78W UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE RIDGING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE ENTIRE 
CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT 
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS... 
SLIGHTLY STRONGER BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE 
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 20N FROM THE 
CENTRAL ATLC TO 75W PROVIDING FOR VERY SIMILAR TRANQUIL SYNOPTIC 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...                                         
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITHIN DRY AIR ALOFT. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 
20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF 
NEW ENGLAND NEAR 43N66W WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE 
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF 36N58W. 
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...THEY SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W TO 26N73W. THE FRONT 
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW 
PREVAILS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N BETWEEN 51W-57W. FURTHERMORE...TO 
THE SOUTHEAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 28N51W SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 34N47W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW 
SW TO 27N52W. THE FRONT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT W-
SW TO 25N60W THEN TO 24N69W. GIVEN A MORE REASONABLE AMOUNT OF 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGER AREA WITHIN 300 NM 
EAST OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...AN OCCLUDED 1017 MB 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N28W AND SUPPORTS A TRIPLE POINT 1016 MB 
LOW NEAR 32N26W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED SW TO 
27N32W...THEN NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 29N37W...AND FINALLY 
AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 34N47W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 24N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
HUFFMAN

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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Apr-2015 17:38:23 UTC