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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 162359
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH 
THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N20W...TO THE 
EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 1S28W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...AND 
CONTINUING ALONG THE EQUATOR/1N TO 40W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 280 NM TO 
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 5S28W 1S28W 1S31W 1N34W 2N39W. ISOLATED TO 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N50W 4N40W 
2N30W 1N22W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN GHANA TO THE SOUTH OF 8N...AND 
IN GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 
13W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT HAS BEEN 
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO 
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 
32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO 
25N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 
25N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 19N91W STILL 
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY 
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE 
NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 89W. 

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 28N95W 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. 

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO 
SITES...KVAF...KGUL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT KHQI...KGBK... 
KVBS...KEIR...KSPR...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP. 

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF 
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...AND THE 
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF LOUISIANA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE 
PONTCHARTRAIN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN PUNTA 
GORDA AND NAPLES...AND IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW 
CLOUD CEILING COVERS MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT...THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N81W TO 21N89W. EXPECT WINDS 
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N57W IN 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN 
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 
66W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W WITH 
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... 
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE 
DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 
73W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER 
BARAHONA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED 
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVER 
LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW 
CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTIAGO. FEW LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING 
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. 

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND 
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.  
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO NORTHEAST  
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 240 NM TO 300 NM 
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL 
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND 
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N57W 23N57W 
17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO PHASE WITH THE ALREADY-
EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THAT PART OF THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 34N29W 24N46W THAT IS 
DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH IS PART OF THE ALREADY-EXISTING 
LONGWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N29W TO 
32N32W TO 24N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N25W AND 25N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT 
PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 23N30W TO 18N40W
TO 15N50W. 

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W TO 25N80W THEN 
STATIONARY TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO 
THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF... 
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS 11 TO 13 
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. EXPECT WINDS 20 
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE 
NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 47W. EXPECT ALSO EAST TO SOUTHEAST 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 180 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31N65W TO 22N54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 16-Apr-2014 23:59:22 UTC