Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 221042

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
542 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

A 994 mb area of low pressure across the western North Atlc 
extends a cold front into the discussion area near 32N51W. The 
front continues SW to 26N55W to 21N67W. Near gale to gale force 
SW winds are occurring N of 26N within 180 nm E of the front. The
gale force conditions are expected to move N of the area by 
23/0600 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 
05N12W to 02N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 02N17W to 01N23W to 02N35W to the Equator near 44W. 
Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 19W-28W...and 
from 02N-05N between 33W-36W. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is from 03N-08N between 47W-51W.


A vigorous middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor 
imagery over portions of the SE CONUS and NE Gulf waters with the
associated trough axis dipping southward a base over the Yucatan 
Channel region. The troughing supports a broad area of surface 
low pressure focused on a 1008 mb low centered in the NE Gulf near
29N85W with a cold front extending S-SW to 25N85W to the NE tip of
the Yucatan peninsula near 21N87W. Numerous showers and scattered
tstms are occurring E of the front to 81W. The convection is 
largely enhanced by strong middle to upper level diffluence. 
Otherwise...the western half of the basin is under the influence 
of gentle to fresh NW winds and surface ridging anchored across
the SW Gulf waters and interior portions of Mexico with mostly 
clear skies prevailing W of 90W. Looking ahead...the cold front is
forecast to move across Florida and into the SW North Atlc waters
by Thursday morning. The next cold front is forecast to move off 
the Texas and Louisiana coast by Friday night into early Saturday.

Overall the Caribbean basin remains under fairly tranquil
conditions this morning with the exception of the eastern and far
northwestern waters. A cold front lies to the N of Puerto Rico
from 23N60W to 22N63W. A surface trough also extends from the cold
front near 23N57W to 20N58W to 12N62W and provides focus for 
isolated showers across the Windward Islands. Mostly northerly
winds prevail across the eastern Caribbean and Atlc moisture and
cloudiness with embedded isolated showers are occurring N of 13 E
of 70W. Across the NW Caribbean...a cold front is analyzed across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the western region of the Yucatan
Channel. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring NW of a line
from western Cuba near 22N81W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W.
The front will introduce fresh to occasional strong W-NW winds
through Wednesday night into early Thursday. Otherwise...dry and 
stable air aloft on NW flow coupled with gentle to moderate 
northerly winds are prevailing and expected to persist through 

Isolated showers are expected as persistent N-NE winds will 
continue to feed Atlc moisture across northern portions of the 
island that will result in these showers through Wednesday 
afternoon. An approaching cold front from the west on Thursday 
will increase cloudiness and probability of convective 

A middle to upper level low is centered across the central North
Atlc near 33N56W that supports the Special Features 994 mb low 
centered near 35N55W and the associated cold front producing the 
near gale to gale force conditions. Scattered showers and tstms 
are occurring E of the front and E of a surface trough from 24N57W
to 13N61W. The activity remains generally N of 12N between 46W- 
57W. To the west...across much of the SW North Atlc...weak 
surface ridging anchored by a 1022 mb high anchored off the New 
England coast near 39N70W maintains gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds as an area of low pressure continues to develop
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As the low pressure moves 
eastward through Wednesday night into Thursday...SE winds are 
expected to increase W of 70W. Finally...the remainder of the 
eastern Atlc is under the influence of another surface ridge 
anchored by a 1027 mb high centered across the Azores near 
38W27W. The ridge axis extends S-SW from the high to 30N32N to 

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Feb-2017 10:42:22 UTC