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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291730
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
FROM 02N TO 09N WITH AN AXIS ALONG 24W TO 25W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY 
SHOWS A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 7N JUST WEST OF 
THE WAVE. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE 
PAST 6 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 24N AND 28W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED OVER PORTION OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 
THIS MORNING AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 18N ALONG 62W...MOVING 
WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A 
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE WHICH IS ALSO WELL IN ADVANCE OF 
THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 04N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL 
WAVE NEAR 04N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N40W TO THE NORTHERN 
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 36W AND 
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTING 
A SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. 
AS OF 1600 UTC THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE IS FROM 
29N93W TO 25N97W. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N WEST OF 
96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE 
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER 
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 23N95W TO 18N94W. NO CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
NORTHEASTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N87W TO 25N85W. SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. OTHER THAN GUSTY NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL 
LINE...GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS 
THE GULF BASIN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN 
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH 
SATURDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ACROSS THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BASE 
OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N78W TO 18N66W...INCLUDING PUERTO 
RICO. CONVECTION EAST OF THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD 
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE 
DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. EXPECT THE 
FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...

THE ISLAND IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE 
BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. 
CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY THIS MOISTURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF 
THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE ISLAND. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY 
MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. 
ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLAND...AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. ON SATURDAY...DEEP 
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE 
COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE 
WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SATURDAY 
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N59W CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 31N 
BETWEEN 53W TO 62W. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
26N68W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N63W THROUGH THE 
CENTER OF THE LOW TO 24N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 25N TO 28W BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 
NEAR THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. 
THE SURFACE LOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BE 
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CENTER. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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Page last modified: Friday, 29-May-2015 17:30:20 UTC